Today’s odds
As of July 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 26%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 14 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Odds Tracker
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since July 14, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
26%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 27 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 27% | 26% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 26% |
| 2026-07-27 | 27% |
| 2026-07-26 | 16% |
| 2026-07-25 | 21% |
| 2026-07-24 | 26% |
| 2026-07-23 | 25% |
| 2026-07-22 | 22% |
| 2026-07-21 | 12% |
| 2026-07-20 | 7% |
| 2026-07-19 | 5% |
| 2026-07-18 | 5% |
| 2026-07-17 | 4% |
| 2026-07-16 | 4% |
| 2026-07-15 | 4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 9% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting” for 15 days, since July 14, 2026. As of July 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 26%. The chance for a yes has risen from 9% to 26%, ranging between 4% and 27% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.