Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 20, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
3%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 3% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 3% |
| 2026-10-11 | 3% |
| 2026-10-10 | 3% |
| 2026-10-09 | 5% |
| 2026-10-08 | 6% |
| 2026-10-07 | 5% |
| 2026-10-06 | 3% |
| 2026-10-05 | 3% |
| 2026-10-03 | 3% |
| 2026-10-02 | 3% |
| 2026-10-01 | 6% |
| 2026-07-30 | 10% |
| 2026-07-29 | 12% |
| 2026-07-28 | 12% |
| 2026-07-26 | 12% |
| 2026-07-25 | 12% |
| 2026-07-24 | 14% |
| 2026-07-23 | 14% |
| 2026-07-22 | 12% |
| 2026-07-21 | 16% |
| 2026-07-20 | 16% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 21 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 16% on July 20, 2026 to 3% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 13 points.
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 21 tracked days the odds ranged between 3% and 16%. The current reading of 3% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026” for 21 days, since July 20, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 16% to 3%, ranging between 3% and 16% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.