34%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027?
- Today’s move is bigger than any daily move we have tracked on it — unusual for this market, not just large in the abstract.
The Morning Line
What's going to happen — and how likely. Every day.
Edition of August 27, 2026 · built from 3,670 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Updated 5:00 AM ET.
What changed — and why
36%
Kansas City wins by over 1.5 points?
Kansas City wins by over 1.5 points
- None of its 11 related questions moved with it — an isolated move, which more often means one thin trade than fresh information.
15%
Will Outer Banks: Season 5 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 31, 2026?
Outer Banks: Season 5
- None of its 2 related questions moved with it — an isolated move, which more often means one thin trade than fresh information.
How it turned out
How It Turned Out
Questions we published while they were still open, and how they actually resolved — quoting the market as it stood that morning.
| Question | What happened | Market said | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the margin of victory for Jared Moskowitz in the 2026 FL-25 Democratic primary be at least 5%? Jared Moskowitz, ≥5% | Politics | Happened The market said 84% on August 15. It happened. | 84% |
| Vietnam To Advance Vietnam advances | Everything Else | Happened The market said 88% on August 23. It happened. | 88% |
| What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement? Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Everything Else | Didn’t happen The market said 69% on August 26. It didn't. | 69% |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 78.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 26, 2026? Above $78.99 | Commodities | Happened The market said 74% on August 26. It happened. | 74% |
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham Nordone | Politics | Happened The market said 64% on July 19. It happened. | 64% |
| Will The Last House be #2 Global Netflix Movie on Aug 24, 2026? The Last House | Culture | Happened The market said 89% on August 21. It happened. | 89% |
Still open
Where the Money Is
The questions with the most money riding on an answer that is still genuinely in doubt, grouped by when they settle.
Settling within 48 hours
42%
Golden State wins
Golden State
76%
Nongshim Red Force wins
Nongshim Red Force
Settling this week
22%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the TOUR Championship?
Scottie Scheffler
- Scottie Scheffler: Scott Alexander Scheffler is an American professional golfer who plays on the PGA Tour. Wikipedia
11%
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?
Longer horizon
10%
Scottie Scheffler leads at the end of Round 1
Scottie Scheffler
- Scottie Scheffler: Scott Alexander Scheffler is an American professional golfer who plays on the PGA Tour. Wikipedia
12%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Today’s move is bigger than 94% of this question’s daily moves — unusual for this market, not just large in the abstract.
- Has traded between 12% and 30% over 52 tracked days — today is its low — see the full history.
The full board for today — everything that moved, everything still up in the air, and what settles next — is in today’s complete edition.