The Morning Line

What's going to happen — and how likely. Every day.

Edition of October 11, 2026 · built from 5,574 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Updated 1:46 PM ET.

What changed — and why

75%

Culture

Wildwood Rotten Tomatoes score?

Above 95

▲ 26 points since this morning · settles in 15 days

3 related questions on the same event moved the same way — Above 96 ▲25, Above 94 ▲16, Above 92 ▲14
Tracked for only 3 days — not yet enough history to say whether 75% is high or low for this question.
Buyers and sellers are 10 points apart — a thin market, so read this number as a range, not a point.

20%

Politics

Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Nov 1, 2026?

Before Nov 1, 2026

▼ 13 points since this morning · settles in 82 days

None of its 2 related questions moved with it — an isolated move, which more often means one thin trade than fresh information.
Tracked for only 3 days — not yet enough history to say whether 20% is high or low for this question.

60%

Commodities

Will the gold close price be above 4199 USD/t.oz on October 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Above $4199

▲ 10 points since this morning · settles tomorrow

6 related questions on the same event moved the same way — Above $4209 ▲9, Above $4219 ▲8, Above $4179 ▲8, Above $4189 ▲8

How it turned out

How It Turned Out

Questions we published while they were still open, and how they actually resolved — quoting the market as it stood that morning.

Question		What happened	Market said
Will Taylor Swift spend 3 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? At least 3 weeks	Culture	Happened The market said 86% on September 19. It happened.	86%
Chicago WS vs Cleveland Division Series winner: Cleveland wins Cleveland	MLB	Happened The market said 14% on October 6. It happened.	14%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Oct 12, 2026? Ceasefire	Politics	Happened The market said 31% on October 6. It happened.	31%
Jacob Bridgeman finishes top 20 Jacob Bridgeman	Golf	Happened The market said 88% on October 8. It happened.	88%
Jacob Bridgeman finishes top 10 Jacob Bridgeman	Golf	Happened The market said 71% on October 8. It happened.	71%
India A wins India A	Everything Else	Happened The market said 39% on October 11. It happened.	39%

Still open

Where the Money Is

The questions with the most money riding on an answer that is still genuinely in doubt, grouped by when they settle.

Settling within 48 hours

52%

NFL

Full Game: over 46.5 points scored?

Over 46.5 points

▲ 2 points since this morning · settles today · 767,401 contracts traded

1 related question on the same event moved the same way — Over 36.5 points ▲6

89%

Everything Else

Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?

settles tomorrow · 66,694 dollars traded

Settling this week

18%

Everything Else

Will Guillermo Rodriguez and their partner be eliminated from Dancing with the Stars Season 35 before Oct 14, 2026?

Guillermo Rodriguez

▼ 1 point since this morning · settles in 3 days · 15,937 contracts traded

14%

Everything Else

Will Erick Visconde win by KO or TKO?

▲ 2 points since this morning · settles in 2 days · 235,597 dollars traded

Longer horizon

28%

Culture

Will La Bola Negra win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards?

La Bola Negra

settles in 85 days · 59,913 contracts traded

La bola negra, also known as The Black Ball, is a 2026 drama film directed by Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi, from a screenplay they co-wrote with Alberto Conejero. Wikipedia
Tracked for only 4 days — not yet enough history to say whether 28% is high or low for this question.

16%

Everything Else

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

settles in 81 days · 73,328,776 dollars traded

Has traded between 12% and 30% over 97 tracked days — see the full history.

The full board for today — everything that moved, everything still up in the air, and what settles next — is in today’s complete edition.