The Morning Line

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET

48%

Today’s odds

As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds make J.D. Vance the most likely outcome at 48%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

J.D. VanceTucker CarlsonRon DeSantisTed CruzTulsi Gabbard
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 15Aug 6Aug 28Sep 20Oct 12J.D. Vance — Jul 15: 41%J.D. Vance — Oct 12: 48%48%Tucker Carlson — Aug 2: 0.9%Tucker Carlson — Oct 12: 3%Ron DeSantis — Jul 15: 2%Ron DeSantis — Oct 12: 2%Ted Cruz — Jul 15: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Oct 12: 2%Tulsi Gabbard — Jul 15: 0.9%Tulsi Gabbard — Oct 12: 0.4%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeOct 11TodayMove
J.D. Vance48%48%—
Tucker Carlson3%3%—
Ron DeSantis2%2%—
Ted Cruz2%2%—
Tulsi Gabbard0.4%0.4%—
Josh Hawley0.4%0.4%—
Brian Kemp0.4%0.4%—
Katie Britt0.2%0.2%—
Full history table
DateJ.D. VanceTucker CarlsonRon DeSantisTed CruzTulsi GabbardJosh HawleyBrian KempKatie Britt
2026-10-1248%3%2%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-10-1148%3%2%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-10-1048%3%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-10-0948%3%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-10-0849%3%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-10-0749%3%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-10-0649%3%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-10-0550%3%3%3%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-10-0450%—3%3%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-10-0350%—3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-10-0250%3%3%3%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-10-0150%3%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.1%
2026-09-3050%3%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-2951%3%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-2851%3%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-2751%3%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-2651%3%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-2551%3%3%2%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-2451%3%3%2%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-2351%3%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.1%
2026-09-2251%3%3%2%0.4%0.3%0.4%0.1%
2026-09-2151%3%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.1%
2026-09-2051%3%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.1%
2026-09-1951%4%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.1%
2026-09-1851%4%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.1%
2026-09-1751%4%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.1%
2026-09-1651%—2%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.1%
2026-09-1551%—2%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.1%
2026-09-1451%—2%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.1%
2026-09-1351%—2%2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-1251%—2%2%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-1150%4%2%2%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-1050%3%2%2%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-0950%3%2%2%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-0850%3%2%2%—0.4%0.4%0.3%
2026-09-0750%3%2%2%0.7%0.4%0.4%0.3%
2026-09-0650%3%2%2%0.7%0.4%0.4%0.3%
2026-09-0550%3%3%2%0.7%0.4%0.4%0.3%
2026-09-0450%3%2%2%0.7%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-0350%3%3%1.4%0.7%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-0253%3%3%1.2%0.7%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-0152%3%3%1.2%0.7%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-3149%3%2%1.2%0.8%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-3049%3%3%0.9%0.8%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-2949%3%3%0.9%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-2848%3%2%0.9%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%
2026-08-2747%3%2%0.9%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%
2026-08-2647%3%2%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-2547%3%2%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-2447%3%2%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-2347%2%2%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-2247%2%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-2147%2%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.1%
2026-08-2047%2%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-1947%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-1847%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-1747%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-08-1647%2%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
2026-08-1547%2%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
2026-08-1447%2%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.2%0.4%
2026-08-1343%2%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
2026-08-1244%2%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
2026-08-1144%2%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
2026-08-1044%2%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
2026-08-0944%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
2026-08-0843%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
2026-08-0743%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
2026-08-0644%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
2026-08-0546%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
2026-08-0446%1.5%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
2026-08-0346%1.5%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
2026-08-0246%0.9%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
2026-08-0143%—3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.4%
2026-07-3143%—3%0.9%0.5%0.4%0.5%0.4%
2026-07-3043%—3%0.9%0.5%0.4%0.5%0.4%
2026-07-2943%—3%0.9%0.5%0.4%0.5%0.4%
2026-07-2843%—3%0.9%0.7%0.4%0.5%0.4%
2026-07-2743%—3%0.9%0.7%0.4%0.5%0.4%
2026-07-2643%—3%0.9%0.7%0.4%0.5%0.4%
2026-07-2543%—3%0.9%0.7%0.4%0.5%0.4%
2026-07-2443%—3%0.9%0.7%0.4%0.5%0.4%
2026-07-2343%—3%0.9%0.7%0.4%0.5%0.4%
2026-07-2243%—3%0.9%0.7%0.4%0.5%0.4%
2026-07-2142%—3%0.9%0.7%0.4%0.5%0.4%
2026-07-2042%—3%0.9%0.8%0.4%0.5%0.4%
2026-07-1940%—2%0.9%0.8%0.5%0.5%0.4%
2026-07-1840%—2%0.9%0.8%0.5%0.6%0.4%
2026-07-1741%—2%0.9%0.8%0.5%0.8%0.4%
2026-07-1641%—2%0.9%0.8%0.5%0.8%0.4%
2026-07-1541%—2%0.9%0.9%0.5%0.8%0.4%
2026-07-1442%—3%0.9%0.9%0.7%0.8%0.4%
2026-07-1342%—2%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.8%0.7%
2026-07-1241%—2%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-1141%—2%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-1040%—2%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-0941%—2%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-0840%—3%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-0741%—3%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination — what are the odds?
As of October 12, 2026, J.D. Vance leads at 48%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination — have the odds gone up or down?
Up. Over the 98 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 41% on July 7, 2026 to 48% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 7 points.
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination — what are the highest and lowest odds?
Over 98 tracked days the odds ranged between 40% and 53%. The current reading of 48% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination” for 98 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, J.D. Vance leads the field at 48%. The chance for J.D. Vance has risen from 41% to 48%, ranging between 40% and 53% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

More questions we track

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.