The Morning Line

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

43%

Today’s odds

As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds make J.D. Vance the most likely outcome at 43%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

J.D. VanceRon DeSantisVivek RamaswamyTed CruzElon Musk
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 13Jul 18Jul 23Jul 29J.D. Vance — Jul 7: 41%J.D. Vance — Jul 8: 40%J.D. Vance — Jul 9: 41%J.D. Vance — Jul 10: 40%J.D. Vance — Jul 11: 41%J.D. Vance — Jul 12: 41%J.D. Vance — Jul 13: 42%J.D. Vance — Jul 14: 42%J.D. Vance — Jul 15: 41%J.D. Vance — Jul 16: 41%J.D. Vance — Jul 17: 41%J.D. Vance — Jul 18: 40%J.D. Vance — Jul 19: 40%J.D. Vance — Jul 20: 42%J.D. Vance — Jul 21: 42%J.D. Vance — Jul 22: 43%J.D. Vance — Jul 23: 43%J.D. Vance — Jul 24: 43%J.D. Vance — Jul 25: 43%J.D. Vance — Jul 26: 43%J.D. Vance — Jul 27: 43%J.D. Vance — Jul 28: 43%J.D. Vance — Jul 29: 43%43%Ron DeSantis — Jul 7: 3%Ron DeSantis — Jul 8: 3%Ron DeSantis — Jul 9: 2%Ron DeSantis — Jul 10: 2%Ron DeSantis — Jul 11: 2%Ron DeSantis — Jul 12: 2%Ron DeSantis — Jul 13: 2%Ron DeSantis — Jul 14: 3%Ron DeSantis — Jul 15: 2%Ron DeSantis — Jul 16: 2%Ron DeSantis — Jul 17: 2%Ron DeSantis — Jul 18: 2%Ron DeSantis — Jul 19: 2%Ron DeSantis — Jul 20: 3%Ron DeSantis — Jul 21: 3%Ron DeSantis — Jul 22: 3%Ron DeSantis — Jul 23: 3%Ron DeSantis — Jul 24: 3%Ron DeSantis — Jul 25: 3%Ron DeSantis — Jul 26: 3%Ron DeSantis — Jul 27: 3%Ron DeSantis — Jul 28: 3%Ron DeSantis — Jul 29: 3%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 7: 1.2%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 8: 1.2%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 9: 1.2%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 10: 1.2%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 11: 1.2%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 12: 1.2%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 13: 1.2%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 14: 1.1%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 15: 0.9%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 16: 0.9%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 17: 0.9%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 18: 0.9%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 19: 0.9%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 20: 0.9%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 21: 1.0%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 22: 1.1%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 23: 1.1%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 24: 1.1%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 25: 1.1%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 26: 1.1%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 27: 1.1%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 28: 1.1%Vivek Ramaswamy — Jul 29: 1.1%Ted Cruz — Jul 7: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 8: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 9: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 10: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 11: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 12: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 13: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 14: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 15: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 16: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 17: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 18: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 19: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 20: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 21: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 22: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 23: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 24: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 25: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 26: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 27: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 28: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Jul 29: 0.9%Elon Musk — Jul 7: 0.9%Elon Musk — Jul 8: 0.9%Elon Musk — Jul 9: 0.9%Elon Musk — Jul 10: 0.9%Elon Musk — Jul 11: 0.9%Elon Musk — Jul 12: 0.9%Elon Musk — Jul 13: 0.9%Elon Musk — Jul 14: 0.9%Elon Musk — Jul 15: 0.9%Elon Musk — Jul 16: 0.9%Elon Musk — Jul 17: 0.9%Elon Musk — Jul 18: 0.8%Elon Musk — Jul 19: 0.8%Elon Musk — Jul 20: 0.8%Elon Musk — Jul 21: 0.8%Elon Musk — Jul 22: 0.8%Elon Musk — Jul 23: 0.8%Elon Musk — Jul 24: 0.8%Elon Musk — Jul 25: 0.8%Elon Musk — Jul 26: 0.8%Elon Musk — Jul 27: 0.8%Elon Musk — Jul 28: 0.8%Elon Musk — Jul 29: 0.8%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 28TodayMove
J.D. Vance43%43%—
Ron DeSantis3%3%—
Vivek Ramaswamy1.1%1.1%—
Ted Cruz0.9%0.9%—
Elon Musk0.8%0.8%—
Greg Abbott0.8%0.8%—
Rand Paul0.8%0.8%—
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.0.8%0.8%—
Full history table
DateJ.D. VanceRon DeSantisVivek RamaswamyTed CruzElon MuskGreg AbbottRand PaulRobert F. Kennedy Jr.
2026-07-2943%3%1.1%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%
2026-07-2843%3%1.1%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%
2026-07-2743%3%1.1%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%
2026-07-2643%3%1.1%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%
2026-07-2543%3%1.1%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%
2026-07-2443%3%1.1%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.9%0.8%
2026-07-2343%3%1.1%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.9%0.8%
2026-07-2243%3%1.1%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.9%0.8%
2026-07-2142%3%1.0%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.9%0.8%
2026-07-2042%3%0.9%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.9%0.8%
2026-07-1940%2%0.9%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.9%0.8%
2026-07-1840%2%0.9%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.9%0.8%
2026-07-1741%2%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.8%0.9%0.8%
2026-07-1641%2%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.8%0.9%0.8%
2026-07-1541%2%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.8%0.9%0.8%
2026-07-1442%3%1.1%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.8%
2026-07-1342%2%1.2%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-1241%2%1.2%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-1141%2%1.2%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-1040%2%1.2%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-0941%2%1.2%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-0840%3%1.2%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-0741%3%1.2%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination — what are the odds?
As of July 29, 2026, J.D. Vance leads at 43%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination — have the odds gone up or down?
Up. Over the 23 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 41% on July 7, 2026 to 43% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 2 points.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination” for 23 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, J.D. Vance leads the field at 43%. The chance for J.D. Vance has risen from 41% to 43%, ranging between 40% and 43% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

More questions we track

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.