Odds Tracker

Every question we track daily — the current market-consensus odds, and how they got there.

One page per question, updated every morning, with the full probability history free to download. New questions join automatically once they show staying power. Sorted by what moved most since the last update. Last updated 5:01 AM ET.

All 115 tracked questions, A to Z.

Question		Leaning	Odds
Will Adam Walton win the Svrcina vs Walton: Round Of 32 match? 4 days of history	Tennis	Unlikely	36% ▼ 26 7d: ▼ 29
Will Dalibor Svrcina win the Svrcina vs Walton: Round Of 32 match? 4 days of history	Tennis	Likely	63% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 30
What will be DeMar DeRozan's next team? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Miami	39% ▼ 17 7d: ▲ 5
What will be Jonathan Kuminga's next team? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Cleveland	46% ▼ 5 7d: ▲ 15
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? 23 days of history	Economy	Unlikely	7% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 4
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? 10 days of history	Economy	Toss-up	40% ▲ 3 7d: ▼ 5
Who will win the 2026 World Series? 23 days of history	MLB	the Los Angeles Dodgers	30% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	24% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 5
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? 17 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	80% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 3
Will Reform UK win the 2026 Clacton by-election? 23 days of history	Politics	Likely	96% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Above 12	98% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? 7 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 15, 2026? 21 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% ▼ 1
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	10% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Will Count Binface Party win the 2026 Clacton by-election? 22 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	4% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? 16 days of history	Economy	Unlikely	21% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	1.5% ▲ 1
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	74% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 3
Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? 23 days of history	Politics	Troy Jackson	62% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 2
New pandemic in 2026? 21 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	9% — 7d: ▲ 2
Who will win the Clacton by-election? 15 days of history	Politics	Likely	97% — 7d: ▲ 2
Who will be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? 23 days of history	UFC	Unlikely	0.9% —
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? 19 days of history	Economy	Likely	79% — 7d: ▲ 1
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? 22 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	12% —
Will Brad Dalke win the Rocket Classic? 3 days of history	Golf	Unlikely	0.4% —
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% —
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% —
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? 23 days of history	Politics	Wide open	2% — 7d: ▲ 1
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% —
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% —
Will at least 50% of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at JFK be cancelled October 21, 2026? 2 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% —
Who will win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? 23 days of history	NBA	Wide open	1.3% —
Will Cameron Young win the Rocket Classic? 3 days of history	Golf	Unlikely	8% — 7d: ▼ 1
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? 20 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	94% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? 13 days of history	Economy	Unlikely	0.2% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? 6 days of history	Economy	Unlikely	0.1% —
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.4% —
Who will win the 2026 TOUR Championship? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	0.4% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will Jackson Suber win the Rocket Classic? 3 days of history	Golf	Unlikely	1.1% —
Who will win the 2026 National League Championship Series? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	2% —
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will Arnold Allen fight Alexander Volkanovski next? 22 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.9% —
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? 21 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	8% — 7d: ▲ 1
Who will win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	0.8% —
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? 21 days of history	Everything Else	Toss-up	41% — 7d: ▼ 3
Who will win the LPL 2026 season? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	13% — 7d: ▲ 4
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? 10 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 10 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.5% —
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Gavin Newsom	19% — 7d: ▼ 1
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? 23 days of history	Everything Else	J.D. Vance	43% —
Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 23 days of history	Politics	the Democrats	58% —
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% —
Who will be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	0.1% —
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% —
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? 10 days of history	Economy	Unlikely	0.1% —
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? 22 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.4% — 7d: ▼ 1
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? 23 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	8% —
Who will win the 2027 NFL league championship? 23 days of history	NFL	Wide open	7% —
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? 23 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	0.1% —
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Yulia Navalnaya	10% —
Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	0.4% —
Who will win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? 23 days of history	NFL	Wide open	9% —
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? 17 days of history	Politics	Darline Graham	74% — 7d: ▲ 2
Who will be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? 21 days of history	Sports	Mercedes	84% — 7d: ▼ 4
Who will win the 2026 Women’s US Open? 23 days of history	Tennis	Wide open	3% —
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? 23 days of history	Politics	Magdalena Andersson	80% — 7d: ▲ 4
Will Jackson Koivun win the Rocket Classic? 3 days of history	Golf	Unlikely	4% —
Who will win the 2026 American League Championship Series? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	2% —
Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	9% — 7d: ▲ 1
Who will win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? 20 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	0.4% — 7d: ▼ 1
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? 22 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	5% — 7d: ▲ 2
Will BP be acquired before 2027? 22 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	10% —
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	72% — 7d: ▼ 2
US strike on Colombia by December 31? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	24% — 7d: ▲ 1
Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? 18 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	0.1% — 7d: ▼ 2
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 22 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% — 7d: ▲ 1
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	26% —
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	18% —
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? 4 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	30% — 7d: ▼ 7
Will Kevin Gausman strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season? 23 days of history	MLB	Unlikely	0.5% —
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 10 days of history	Everything Else	Toss-up	48% — 7d: ▼ 16
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 9 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.5% —
Will Maxx Crosby play for Tennessee Titans next? 21 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.2% —
Who will win the 2027 NBA Finals? 23 days of history	NBA	Wide open	0.9% —
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? 19 days of history	Culture	Toss-up	50% —
Will Adrien Saddier win the Rocket Classic? 2 days of history	Golf	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Lucas Glover win the Rocket Classic? 3 days of history	Golf	Unlikely	0.4% —
Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the Rocket Classic? 3 days of history	Golf	Unlikely	2% —
Will Joe Highsmith win the Rocket Classic? 2 days of history	Golf	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Chandler Phillips win the Rocket Classic? 3 days of history	Golf	Unlikely	0.4% —
Who will win the 2026 National League MVP Award? 20 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	0.1% —
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? 21 days of history	Everything Else	Toss-up	46% — 7d: ▼ 2
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? 22 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	5% —
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? 22 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.7% —
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? 22 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	30% — 7d: ▲ 3
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? 22 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	31% — 7d: ▼ 3
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 21 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	8% —
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? 22 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027? 21 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.4% —
Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? 18 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	0.1% —
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Romania? 23 days of history	Politics	Wide open	0.7% —
Who will be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? 19 days of history	UFC	Unlikely	0.1% —
Who will win the 2026 Alaska governor election? 23 days of history	Politics	Tom Begich	36% — 7d: ▲ 4
Who will win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? 22 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	0.6% —
Who will win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? 23 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	0.4% —
Who will win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? 21 days of history	NFL	Unlikely	2% —
Who will win the 2026 Men's US Open? 23 days of history	Tennis	Toss-up	52% —
Rain in Seattle in Jul 2026? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% — 7d: ▼ 7
What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call? 23 days of history	Everything Else	M&A / Acquisition	90% — 7d: ▲ 3
Who will win Heisman Trophy? 22 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% —

Done deciding? 142 completed questions live on with their final odds.

Data miners welcome. Every tracked question publishes its full daily history as JSON and CSV — see the open data page or data/index.json for the machine-readable directory. Free to reuse with a link back.