Odds Tracker

Every question we track daily — the current market-consensus odds, and how they got there.

One page per question, updated every morning, with the full probability history free to download. New questions join automatically once they show staying power. Sorted by what moved most since the last update. Last updated 5:00 AM ET.

All 144 tracked questions, A to Z.

Question		Leaning	Odds
What will be the top AI model on Oct 31, 2026? 7 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	76% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 10
Snow in Seattle in Dec 2026? 3 days of history	Everything Else	Above 2 inches	22% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 12
Who will win the 2026 San Francisco Board of Supervisors District 8 election? 6 days of history	Politics	Gary McCoy	77% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 10
Cup Series: Kyle Larson is awarded pole position? 5 days of history	NASCAR	Unlikely	18% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 3
5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026? 3 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% ▼ 11 7d: ▼ 12
Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 0% and 3%? 4 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	21% ▼ 11 7d: ▼ 26
Who will win the 2026 World Series? 87 days of history	MLB	Unlikely	34% ▼ 8 7d: ▲ 6
Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before December 1, 2026? 3 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	10% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 5
Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027? 3 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	14% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 10
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? 8 days of history	Everything Else	Toss-up	54% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 4
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? 8 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 6
Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Nov 1, 2026? 4 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	14% ▼ 6 7d: ▲ 6
You Can See Everything Rotten Tomatoes score? 12 days of history	Culture	Unlikely	23% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6
Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026? 3 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 6
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? 18 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	33% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 5
Will Daniil Medvedev win the Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina match by a set score of 2-0? 2 days of history	Tennis	Likely	68% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5
Will Housewife by Tate McRae debut #1 on the Billboard Hot 100? 4 days of history	Culture	Unlikely	16% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 13
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? 42 days of history	Everything Else	Toss-up	44% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 2
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? 20 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	87% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 28
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? 17 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	15% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 1
Sense and Sensibility Rotten Tomatoes score? 8 days of history	Culture	Above 77	46% ▲ 3 7d: ▼ 6
Will La Bola Negra be on the list of nominees for Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? 4 days of history	Culture	Unlikely	28% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 9
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? 51 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	5% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2
Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 98 days of history	Politics	JD Vance	20% ▲ 2
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? 2 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? 19 days of history	Everything Else	Toss-up	58% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 8
Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? 37 days of history	Politics	Likely	70% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 4
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? 7 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	82% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 14
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? 98 days of history	Politics	Flávio Bolsonaro	86% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 4
Will Melissa Roxburgh win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? 4 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	8% ▼ 2
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? 13 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	14% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 4
Who will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? 26 days of history	Politics	Likely	72% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? 24 days of history	Everything Else	Toss-up	58% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East? 4 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	40% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 3
ATP Shanghai: Carlos Alcaraz wins? 5 days of history	Tennis	Toss-up	44% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 6
Wildwood Rotten Tomatoes score? 10 days of history	Culture	Above 92	88% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 12
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? 8 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% ▼ 1
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? 13 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Who will win the 2027 NBA Finals? 98 days of history	NBA	New York Knicks	12% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup? 98 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	7% ▲ 1
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? 13 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	12% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? 98 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	18% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2
Will La Bola Negra win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? 5 days of history	Culture	Unlikely	27% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 8
Will Joel Kinnaman win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? 4 days of history	Culture	Unlikely	4% — 7d: ▼ 4
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Romania? 98 days of history	Politics	Wide open	2% — 7d: ▼ 3
Who will win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? 98 days of history	NFL	Unlikely	6% —
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Spain? 6 days of history	Politics	Wide open	1.4% — 7d: ▼ 1
Ebola pandemic in 2026? 7 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% — 7d: ▼ 1
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% — 7d: ▲ 1
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? 44 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	3% —
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? 11 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% —
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? 98 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% —
Who will win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? 89 days of history	NFL	Wide open	7% —
Who will be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? 96 days of history	Sports	Unlikely	0.5% —
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? 14 days of history	Sports	Unlikely	2% — 7d: ▼ 2
Who will win the 2026 American League Championship Series? 97 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	37% — 7d: ▲ 30
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 98 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% —
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 98 days of history	Everything Else	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	18% —
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? 98 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	3% —
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? 96 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	7% —
GTA 6 launch postponed again? 12 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% —
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? 9 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	95% —
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? 9 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	7% — 7d: ▼ 5
Stripe IPO before 2027? 49 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% — 7d: ▲ 1
Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? 69 days of history	Politics	Wide open	0.7% —
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? 24 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	1.4% —
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? 15 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% —
Who will win the 2026 Alaska governor election? 96 days of history	Politics	Likely	78% — 7d: ▲ 3
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? 38 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% —
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? 39 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% — 7d: ▲ 2
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? 10 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	2% —
Who will be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? 61 days of history	UFC	Wide open	0.8% —
Iran nuclear test before 2027? 14 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% — 7d: ▲ 1
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? 15 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% —
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 51 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.5% —
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? 98 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	2% —
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? 98 days of history	Everything Else	J.D. Vance	48% — 7d: ▼ 2
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? 98 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	1.4% —
Who will be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? 98 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	0.1% —
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? 98 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% —
Who will win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? 79 days of history	Champions League	Real Madrid	10% —
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? 98 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% — 7d: ▼ 1
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? 39 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	5% —
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? 98 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% — 7d: ▼ 1
Xi Jinping out before 2027? 26 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% —
Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? 98 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	0.1% —
Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 85 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	2% — 7d: ▼ 1
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel? 50 days of history	Politics	Wide open	0.1% —
Who will be the top grossing movie of 2026? 86 days of history	Culture	Wide open	0.1% —
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 84 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.6% —
Who will win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? 68 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.2% —
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? 98 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% —
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 78 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.4% —
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? 30 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% —
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? 56 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Who will win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? 91 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.4% —
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 66 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Who will be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? 90 days of history	UFC	Wide open	0.1% —
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 58 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.3% —
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? 21 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	1.2% —
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026? 11 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	82% — 7d: ▲ 1
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? 6 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% — 7d: ▼ 13
Who will win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? 85 days of history	Premier League	Unlikely	0.4% —
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 7 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.4% —
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? 7 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% —
US strike on Mexico by December 31? 7 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% —
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? 18 days of history	Economy	Likely	74% — 7d: ▲ 7
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? 6 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% — 7d: ▼ 2
Who will win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? 94 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	0.1% —
Who will win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? 19 days of history	Everything Else	Wide open	0.5% —
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? 12 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	96% — 7d: ▲ 2
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026? 40 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.2% —
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? 6 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	8% —
USDC depeg by December 31? 51 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% —
NATO article 5 before 2027? 25 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	5% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? 11 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? 12 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	1.4% —
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? 22 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	6% — 7d: ▲ 1
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? 7 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026? 19 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.4% —
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? 9 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? 11 days of history	Everything Else	Toss-up	42% — 7d: ▲ 33
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B? 28 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	8% — 7d: ▲ 3
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	82% — 7d: ▼ 6
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? 11 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% — 7d: ▼ 1
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? 11 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	8% —
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? 21 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	3% —
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027? 11 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	0.1% —
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? 23 days of history	Everything Else	Likely	63% — 7d: ▼ 1
Who will win the Texas governor race in 2026? 7 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	22% — 7d: ▲ 1
Who will be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion? 21 days of history	Bundesliga	Wide open	3% — 7d: ▼ 1
Who will win the next Bulgarian presidential election? 36 days of history	Politics	Wide open	0.1% —
Ebenezer Rotten Tomatoes score? 9 days of history	Culture	Above 20	94% —
Who will be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? 56 days of history	UFC	Unlikely	0.1% —
Who will win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? 20 days of history	Politics	Unlikely	0.1% —
Who will win the 2026 NFL MVP? 54 days of history	NFL	Unlikely	20% —
Who will be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? 71 days of history	UFC	Unlikely	0.1% —
Hexed Rotten Tomatoes score? 6 days of history	Culture	Above 55	68% —
Will Tim Allen win Best Actor in a Comedy Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? 4 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	5% — 7d: ▲ 1
Will Ted win Best Comedy Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? 4 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	4% — 7d: ▼ 4
Will Elisabeth Moss win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? 5 days of history	Culture	Unlikely	3% — 7d: ▲ 2
Will Ryan Gosling win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? 3 days of history	Everything Else	Unlikely	2% —
Will Godzilla Minus Zero win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? 5 days of history	Culture	Unlikely	4% — 7d: ▲ 2
Will Woman Unknown win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? 5 days of history	Culture	Unlikely	2% — 7d: ▼ 1

Done deciding? 896 completed questions live on with their final odds.

Data miners welcome. Every tracked question publishes its full daily history as JSON and CSV — see the open data page or data/index.json for the machine-readable directory. Free to reuse with a link back.