Final tracked odds
As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Economy · tracked since July 12, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 1, 2026
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 19 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 2% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 2% |
| 2026-10-19 | 3% |
| 2026-10-18 | 4% |
| 2026-10-16 | 4% |
| 2026-10-15 | 4% |
| 2026-10-14 | 4% |
| 2026-10-13 | 4% |
| 2026-10-12 | 4% |
| 2026-10-11 | 4% |
| 2026-10-10 | 4% |
| 2026-10-09 | 4% |
| 2026-10-08 | 4% |
| 2026-10-07 | 4% |
| 2026-10-06 | 4% |
| 2026-10-05 | 3% |
| 2026-10-02 | 4% |
| 2026-10-01 | 3% |
| 2026-08-31 | 8% |
| 2026-08-30 | 8% |
| 2026-08-29 | 8% |
| 2026-08-27 | 8% |
| 2026-08-26 | 6% |
| 2026-08-25 | 7% |
| 2026-08-24 | 6% |
| 2026-08-23 | 7% |
| 2026-08-22 | 8% |
| 2026-08-21 | 7% |
| 2026-08-20 | 7% |
| 2026-08-19 | 8% |
| 2026-08-18 | 6% |
| 2026-08-17 | 8% |
| 2026-08-16 | 6% |
| 2026-08-15 | 6% |
| 2026-08-14 | 6% |
| 2026-08-13 | 6% |
| 2026-08-12 | 8% |
| 2026-08-11 | 9% |
| 2026-08-10 | 6% |
| 2026-08-09 | 6% |
| 2026-08-08 | 6% |
| 2026-08-07 | 6% |
| 2026-08-03 | 6% |
| 2026-07-31 | 6% |
| 2026-07-30 | 7% |
| 2026-07-29 | 7% |
| 2026-07-28 | 6% |
| 2026-07-27 | 6% |
| 2026-07-24 | 8% |
| 2026-07-23 | 8% |
| 2026-07-22 | 7% |
| 2026-07-21 | 6% |
| 2026-07-20 | 6% |
| 2026-07-13 | 6% |
| 2026-07-12 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 54 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on July 12, 2026 to 2% on November 1, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 54 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 9%. The final reading of 2% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Fed emergency rate cut before 2027” for 54 days, since July 12, 2026. As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 6% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 9% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 1, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.