Today’s odds
As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 34%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 8 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
Economy · tracked since July 12, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
34%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 34% | 34% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 34% |
| 2026-08-26 | 34% |
| 2026-08-25 | 34% |
| 2026-08-24 | 31% |
| 2026-08-23 | 31% |
| 2026-08-22 | 32% |
| 2026-08-21 | 28% |
| 2026-08-20 | 26% |
| 2026-08-19 | 28% |
| 2026-08-18 | 28% |
| 2026-08-17 | 24% |
| 2026-08-16 | 22% |
| 2026-08-15 | 22% |
| 2026-08-14 | 26% |
| 2026-08-13 | 26% |
| 2026-07-19 | 36% |
| 2026-07-18 | 34% |
| 2026-07-17 | 34% |
| 2026-07-16 | 32% |
| 2026-07-15 | 35% |
| 2026-07-14 | 43% |
| 2026-07-13 | 60% |
| 2026-07-12 | 44% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting — what are the odds?
- As of August 27, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 34%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 23 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 44% on July 12, 2026 to 34% on August 27, 2026 — a change of 10 points.
- Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 23 tracked days the odds ranged between 22% and 60%. The current reading of 34% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting” for 23 days, since July 12, 2026. As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 34%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 44% to 34%, ranging between 22% and 60% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.