The Morning Line

GDP growth in 2036?

Economy · tracked since July 28, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 17, 2026

18%

Final tracked odds

As of August 17, 2026, market-consensus odds make 1.6% to 2.0% the most likely outcome at 18%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

1.6% to 2.0%2.1% to 2.5%0.0% or Below1.1% to 1.5%3.6% to 4.0%
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 28Aug 1Aug 5Aug 9Aug 171.6% to 2.0% — Jul 28: 10%1.6% to 2.0% — Jul 29: 10%1.6% to 2.0% — Jul 30: 18%1.6% to 2.0% — Jul 31: 28%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 1: 30%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 2: 22%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 3: 18%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 4: 20%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 5: 20%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 6: 19%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 7: 20%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 8: 20%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 9: 20%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 10: 20%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 11: 20%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 16: 18%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 17: 18%18%2.1% to 2.5% — Jul 28: 12%2.1% to 2.5% — Jul 29: 12%2.1% to 2.5% — Jul 30: 12%2.1% to 2.5% — Jul 31: 12%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 1: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 2: 8%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 3: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 4: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 5: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 6: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 7: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 8: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 9: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 10: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 11: 12%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 16: 12%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 17: 12%0.0% or Below — Jul 28: 10%0.0% or Below — Jul 29: 10%0.0% or Below — Jul 30: 10%0.0% or Below — Jul 31: 8%0.0% or Below — Aug 1: 22%0.0% or Below — Aug 2: 3%0.0% or Below — Aug 3: 8%0.0% or Below — Aug 4: 8%0.0% or Below — Aug 5: 8%0.0% or Below — Aug 6: 8%0.0% or Below — Aug 7: 8%0.0% or Below — Aug 8: 8%0.0% or Below — Aug 9: 8%0.0% or Below — Aug 10: 12%0.0% or Below — Aug 11: 11%0.0% or Below — Aug 16: 9%0.0% or Below — Aug 17: 9%1.1% to 1.5% — Jul 28: 8%1.1% to 1.5% — Jul 29: 8%1.1% to 1.5% — Jul 30: 8%1.1% to 1.5% — Jul 31: 8%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 1: 8%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 2: 6%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 3: 8%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 4: 10%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 5: 10%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 6: 10%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 7: 10%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 8: 10%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 9: 10%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 10: 9%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 11: 8%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 16: 7%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 17: 7%3.6% to 4.0% — Jul 28: 4%3.6% to 4.0% — Jul 29: 4%3.6% to 4.0% — Jul 30: 4%3.6% to 4.0% — Jul 31: 4%3.6% to 4.0% — Aug 1: 2%3.6% to 4.0% — Aug 2: 4%3.6% to 4.0% — Aug 3: 7%3.6% to 4.0% — Aug 4: 8%3.6% to 4.0% — Aug 5: 8%3.6% to 4.0% — Aug 6: 8%3.6% to 4.0% — Aug 7: 8%3.6% to 4.0% — Aug 8: 8%3.6% to 4.0% — Aug 9: 8%3.6% to 4.0% — Aug 10: 7%3.6% to 4.0% — Aug 11: 8%3.6% to 4.0% — Aug 16: 4%3.6% to 4.0% — Aug 17: 4%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeAug 16TodayMove
1.6% to 2.0%18%18%—
2.1% to 2.5%12%12%—
0.0% or Below9%9%—
1.1% to 1.5%7%7%—
3.6% to 4.0%4%4%—
0.1% to 0.5%4%4%—
6.1% or Above6%4%▼ 2
2.6% to 3.0%4%4%—
Full history table
Date1.6% to 2.0%2.1% to 2.5%0.0% or Below1.1% to 1.5%3.6% to 4.0%0.1% to 0.5%6.1% or Above2.6% to 3.0%
2026-08-1718%12%9%7%4%4%4%4%
2026-08-1618%12%9%7%4%4%6%4%
2026-08-1120%12%11%8%8%4%8%4%
2026-08-1020%10%12%9%7%4%8%4%
2026-08-0920%10%8%10%8%4%12%6%
2026-08-0820%10%8%10%8%4%12%6%
2026-08-0720%10%8%10%8%4%12%6%
2026-08-0619%10%8%10%8%4%12%6%
2026-08-0520%10%8%10%8%4%12%6%
2026-08-0420%10%8%10%8%4%12%6%
2026-08-0318%10%8%8%7%4%8%6%
2026-08-0222%8%3%6%4%2%—6%
2026-08-0130%10%22%8%2%4%2%6%
2026-07-3128%12%8%8%4%4%2%8%
2026-07-3018%12%10%8%4%4%4%8%
2026-07-2910%12%10%8%4%4%6%10%
2026-07-2810%12%10%8%4%4%6%10%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

GDP growth in 2036 — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, August 17, 2026, 1.6% to 2.0% led at 18%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
GDP growth in 2036 — did the odds go up or down?
Up. Over the 17 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 10% on July 28, 2026 to 18% on August 17, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
GDP growth in 2036 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 17 tracked days the odds ranged between 10% and 30%. The final reading of 18% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “GDP growth in 2036” for 17 days, since July 28, 2026. As of August 17, 2026, 1.6% to 2.0% leads the field at 18%. The final tracked chance for 1.6% to 2.0% has risen from 10% to 18%, ranging between 10% and 30% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 17, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.