Today’s odds
As of November 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 34%.
▲ 16 since the previous update. ▲ 16 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
Economy · tracked since September 14, 2026 · last updated 4:03 AM ET
34%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18% | 34% | ▲ 16 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | 34% |
| 2026-09-30 | 18% |
| 2026-09-15 | 50% |
| 2026-09-14 | 50% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of November 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 34%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 50% on September 14, 2026 to 34% on November 6, 2026 — a change of 16 points.
- Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 18% and 50%. The current reading of 34% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026” for 4 days, since September 14, 2026. As of November 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 34%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 50% to 34%, ranging between 18% and 50% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.