Final tracked odds
As of September 15, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 90%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 28 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
Economy · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 15, 2026
90%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 14 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 88% | 90% | ▲ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 90% |
| 2026-09-14 | 88% |
| 2026-09-13 | 84% |
| 2026-09-12 | 84% |
| 2026-09-11 | 87% |
| 2026-09-10 | 73% |
| 2026-09-09 | 62% |
| 2026-09-08 | 62% |
| 2026-09-07 | 62% |
| 2026-09-06 | 62% |
| 2026-09-05 | 64% |
| 2026-09-04 | 64% |
| 2026-09-03 | 58% |
| 2026-09-02 | 68% |
| 2026-09-01 | 64% |
| 2026-08-29 | 60% |
| 2026-08-28 | 60% |
| 2026-08-27 | 44% |
| 2026-08-26 | 42% |
| 2026-08-25 | 42% |
| 2026-08-24 | 40% |
| 2026-08-23 | 40% |
| 2026-08-22 | 40% |
| 2026-08-21 | 40% |
| 2026-08-20 | 40% |
| 2026-08-19 | 40% |
| 2026-08-18 | 40% |
| 2026-08-17 | 39% |
| 2026-08-16 | 39% |
| 2026-08-15 | 40% |
| 2026-08-14 | 38% |
| 2026-08-13 | 44% |
| 2026-08-12 | 48% |
| 2026-08-11 | 48% |
| 2026-08-10 | 48% |
| 2026-08-09 | 48% |
| 2026-08-08 | 49% |
| 2026-08-07 | 50% |
| 2026-08-04 | 62% |
| 2026-08-03 | 66% |
| 2026-08-02 | 68% |
| 2026-08-01 | 69% |
| 2026-07-31 | 63% |
| 2026-07-30 | 63% |
| 2026-07-08 | 38% |
| 2026-07-07 | 38% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct) — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 15, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 90%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct) — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 46 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 38% on July 7, 2026 to 90% on September 15, 2026 — a change of 52 points.
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct) — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 46 tracked days the odds ranged between 38% and 90%. The final reading of 90% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)” for 46 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 15, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 90%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 38% to 90%, ranging between 38% and 90% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 15, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.