Final tracked odds
As of August 17, 2026, market-consensus odds make 2.1% to 2.5% the most likely outcome at 16%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
GDP growth in 2032?
Economy · tracked since July 28, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 17, 2026
16%
How the odds have moved
2.1% to 2.5%0.0% or Below2.6% to 3.0%1.1% to 1.5%3.1% to 3.5%
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 16 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.1% to 2.5% | 16% | 16% | — |
| 0.0% or Below | 12% | 12% | — |
| 2.6% to 3.0% | 8% | 8% | — |
| 1.1% to 1.5% | 8% | 8% | — |
| 3.1% to 3.5% | 6% | 6% | — |
| 0.1% to 0.5% | 6% | 6% | — |
| 4.6% to 5.0% | 6% | 6% | — |
| 3.6% to 4.0% | 6% | 6% | — |
Full history table
| Date | 2.1% to 2.5% | 0.0% or Below | 2.6% to 3.0% | 1.1% to 1.5% | 3.1% to 3.5% | 0.1% to 0.5% | 4.6% to 5.0% | 3.6% to 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | 16% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-16 | 16% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-11 | 15% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-10 | 14% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-09 | 16% | 14% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-08 | 14% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-07 | 14% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-06 | 15% | 21% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-05 | 18% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-04 | 18% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-03 | 18% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-02 | 14% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-01 | 10% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-07-31 | 12% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-07-30 | 12% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-07-29 | 10% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-07-28 | 10% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- GDP growth in 2032 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 17, 2026, 2.1% to 2.5% led at 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- GDP growth in 2032 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 17 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 10% on July 28, 2026 to 16% on August 17, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- GDP growth in 2032 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 17 tracked days the odds ranged between 10% and 18%. The final reading of 16% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “GDP growth in 2032” for 17 days, since July 28, 2026. As of August 17, 2026, 2.1% to 2.5% leads the field at 16%. The final tracked chance for 2.1% to 2.5% has risen from 10% to 16%, ranging between 10% and 18% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 17, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.