The Morning Line

GDP growth in 2033?

Economy · tracked since July 28, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET

12%

Today’s odds

As of August 9, 2026, market-consensus odds make 0.0% or Below the most likely outcome at 12%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

0.0% or Below1.6% to 2.0%1.1% to 1.5%2.1% to 2.5%6.1% or Above
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 28Jul 31Aug 3Aug 6Aug 90.0% or Below — Jul 28: 12%0.0% or Below — Jul 29: 12%0.0% or Below — Jul 30: 12%0.0% or Below — Jul 31: 12%0.0% or Below — Aug 1: 10%0.0% or Below — Aug 2: 10%0.0% or Below — Aug 3: 12%0.0% or Below — Aug 4: 12%0.0% or Below — Aug 5: 12%0.0% or Below — Aug 6: 12%0.0% or Below — Aug 7: 12%0.0% or Below — Aug 8: 12%0.0% or Below — Aug 9: 12%12%1.6% to 2.0% — Jul 28: 10%1.6% to 2.0% — Jul 29: 10%1.6% to 2.0% — Jul 30: 10%1.6% to 2.0% — Jul 31: 10%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 1: 10%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 2: 7%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 3: 10%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 4: 10%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 5: 10%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 6: 10%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 7: 10%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 8: 10%1.6% to 2.0% — Aug 9: 10%1.1% to 1.5% — Jul 28: 12%1.1% to 1.5% — Jul 29: 12%1.1% to 1.5% — Jul 30: 10%1.1% to 1.5% — Jul 31: 10%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 1: 10%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 2: 10%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 3: 10%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 4: 10%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 5: 10%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 6: 10%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 7: 10%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 8: 10%1.1% to 1.5% — Aug 9: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Jul 28: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Jul 29: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Jul 30: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Jul 31: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 1: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 2: 8%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 3: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 4: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 5: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 6: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 7: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 8: 10%2.1% to 2.5% — Aug 9: 10%6.1% or Above — Jul 28: 8%6.1% or Above — Jul 29: 8%6.1% or Above — Jul 30: 2%6.1% or Above — Jul 31: 2%6.1% or Above — Aug 1: 2%6.1% or Above — Aug 2: 2%6.1% or Above — Aug 3: 2%6.1% or Above — Aug 4: 2%6.1% or Above — Aug 5: 10%6.1% or Above — Aug 6: 8%6.1% or Above — Aug 7: 8%6.1% or Above — Aug 8: 8%6.1% or Above — Aug 9: 8%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeAug 8TodayMove
0.0% or Below12%12%—
1.6% to 2.0%10%10%—
1.1% to 1.5%10%10%—
2.1% to 2.5%10%10%—
6.1% or Above8%8%▲ 1
2.6% to 3.0%8%8%—
3.1% to 3.5%6%6%—
0.1% to 0.5%6%6%—
Full history table
Date0.0% or Below1.6% to 2.0%1.1% to 1.5%2.1% to 2.5%6.1% or Above2.6% to 3.0%3.1% to 3.5%0.1% to 0.5%
2026-08-0912%10%10%10%8%8%6%6%
2026-08-0812%10%10%10%8%8%6%6%
2026-08-0712%10%10%10%8%8%6%6%
2026-08-0612%10%10%10%8%8%6%6%
2026-08-0512%10%10%10%10%8%6%6%
2026-08-0412%10%10%10%2%8%6%6%
2026-08-0312%10%10%10%2%8%6%6%
2026-08-0210%7%10%8%2%6%4%6%
2026-08-0110%10%10%10%2%10%6%8%
2026-07-3112%10%10%10%2%10%6%8%
2026-07-3012%10%10%10%2%10%6%10%
2026-07-2912%10%12%10%8%10%6%4%
2026-07-2812%10%12%10%8%10%6%4%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

GDP growth in 2033 — what are the odds?
As of August 9, 2026, 0.0% or Below leads at 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
GDP growth in 2033 — how much have the odds move?
Barely. Across 13 tracked days the odds held near 12%, ending at 12% on August 9, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “GDP growth in 2033” for 13 days, since July 28, 2026. As of August 9, 2026, 0.0% or Below leads the field at 12%. The chance for 0.0% or Below has held near 12%, ranging between 10% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

Related questions

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.