Final tracked odds
As of September 15, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 8%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since August 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 15, 2026
8%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 14 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 8% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 8% |
| 2026-09-14 | 7% |
| 2026-09-13 | 6% |
| 2026-09-12 | 6% |
| 2026-09-11 | 6% |
| 2026-09-10 | 8% |
| 2026-09-09 | 6% |
| 2026-09-08 | 6% |
| 2026-09-07 | 6% |
| 2026-09-06 | 6% |
| 2026-09-05 | 6% |
| 2026-09-04 | 6% |
| 2026-09-03 | 12% |
| 2026-09-02 | 10% |
| 2026-09-01 | 10% |
| 2026-08-11 | 16% |
| 2026-08-10 | 16% |
| 2026-08-09 | 16% |
| 2026-08-08 | 16% |
| 2026-08-07 | 16% |
| 2026-08-06 | 12% |
| 2026-08-05 | 12% |
| 2026-08-04 | 12% |
| 2026-08-03 | 12% |
| 2026-08-02 | 12% |
| 2026-08-01 | 12% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 15, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 26 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on August 1, 2026 to 8% on September 15, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 26 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 16%. The final reading of 8% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting” for 26 days, since August 1, 2026. As of September 15, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 12% to 8%, ranging between 6% and 16% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 15, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.