Final tracked odds
As of September 16, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 90%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 18 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
Economy · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 16, 2026
90%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 15 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | 90% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 90% |
| 2026-09-15 | 90% |
| 2026-09-14 | 90% |
| 2026-07-29 | 72% |
| 2026-07-28 | 74% |
| 2026-07-27 | 68% |
| 2026-07-26 | 66% |
| 2026-07-25 | 68% |
| 2026-07-24 | 68% |
| 2026-07-23 | 68% |
| 2026-07-22 | 64% |
| 2026-07-21 | 56% |
| 2026-07-20 | 46% |
| 2026-07-08 | 42% |
| 2026-07-07 | 42% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 16, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 90%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 15 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 42% on July 7, 2026 to 90% on September 16, 2026 — a change of 48 points.
- Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 15 tracked days the odds ranged between 42% and 90%. The final reading of 90% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting” for 15 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 16, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 90%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 42% to 90%, ranging between 42% and 90% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 16, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.