The Morning Line

Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET

18%

Today’s odds

As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds make Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez the most likely outcome at 18%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Alexandria Ocasio-CortezJon OssoffGavin NewsomKamala HarrisAndy Beshear
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 15Aug 6Aug 28Sep 20Oct 12Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — Jul 15: 14%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — Oct 12: 18%18%Jon Ossoff — Aug 5: 15%Jon Ossoff — Oct 12: 16%Gavin Newsom — Jul 15: 20%Gavin Newsom — Oct 12: 15%Kamala Harris — Jul 30: 8%Kamala Harris — Oct 12: 6%Andy Beshear — Jul 15: 2%Andy Beshear — Oct 12: 3%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeOct 11TodayMove
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%18%—
Jon Ossoff15%16%▲ 1
Gavin Newsom15%15%—
Kamala Harris6%6%—
Andy Beshear3%3%—
Mark Kelly2%2%—
Bernie Sanders2%2%—
Wes Moore2%2%—
Full history table
DateAlexandria Ocasio-CortezJon OssoffGavin NewsomKamala HarrisAndy BeshearMark KellyBernie SandersWes Moore
2026-10-1218%16%15%6%3%2%2%2%
2026-10-1118%15%15%6%3%2%2%2%
2026-10-1018%15%15%6%3%2%2%2%
2026-10-0918%15%15%7%3%2%2%2%
2026-10-0818%15%18%7%3%3%2%2%
2026-10-0718%15%17%7%3%3%3%2%
2026-10-0618%15%16%7%3%3%0.9%2%
2026-10-0518%—16%——3%0.9%2%
2026-10-0417%—17%——3%0.8%2%
2026-10-0317%—16%——3%0.7%2%
2026-10-0218%—16%——3%0.7%2%
2026-10-0117%—16%——3%0.7%2%
2026-09-3019%—16%——3%0.7%2%
2026-09-2919%—17%——3%0.7%2%
2026-09-2819%—17%——3%0.7%2%
2026-09-2719%—16%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-2618%—15%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-2518%—15%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-2418%—14%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-2318%—13%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-2218%—13%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-2118%—13%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-2018%—15%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-1918%—16%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-1819%—16%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-1718%—16%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-1618%—16%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-1519%—18%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-1418%—13%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-1319%—13%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-1218%—14%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-1119%—14%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-1019%—14%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-0919%—14%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-0818%—14%——3%0.4%1.5%
2026-09-0718%—14%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-0619%—14%——3%0.5%2%
2026-09-0520%—14%——3%0.5%2%
2026-09-0420%—14%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-0320%—14%——3%0.4%2%
2026-09-0220%—15%——3%0.5%2%
2026-09-0120%—15%——3%0.5%2%
2026-08-3120%—15%——3%0.5%2%
2026-08-3020%—15%——3%0.5%1.5%
2026-08-2919%—14%——3%0.5%1.5%
2026-08-2820%—15%8%—3%0.5%1.5%
2026-08-2721%—15%8%2%3%0.4%1.4%
2026-08-2621%—14%7%2%3%0.4%1.4%
2026-08-2521%—14%7%2%3%0.4%2%
2026-08-2421%—15%7%3%3%0.4%2%
2026-08-2321%—15%7%2%3%0.4%2%
2026-08-2219%—15%7%2%3%0.4%1.5%
2026-08-2118%—15%7%2%3%0.4%1.5%
2026-08-2018%—15%7%2%3%0.4%1.5%
2026-08-1921%—15%8%2%3%0.4%2%
2026-08-1819%—16%8%2%3%0.5%2%
2026-08-1720%—16%7%2%3%0.5%2%
2026-08-1620%—17%7%2%3%0.5%2%
2026-08-1520%—16%7%2%3%0.5%2%
2026-08-1422%—17%7%2%3%0.5%2%
2026-08-1319%—17%7%2%3%0.5%1.5%
2026-08-1218%16%17%7%2%3%0.5%1.5%
2026-08-1115%16%17%8%2%3%0.6%1.5%
2026-08-1015%16%18%8%2%3%0.5%1.5%
2026-08-0915%16%18%8%2%3%0.5%1.5%
2026-08-0815%16%18%8%2%3%0.6%1.5%
2026-08-0715%16%18%8%3%3%0.7%1.5%
2026-08-0615%16%18%8%3%3%0.7%1.5%
2026-08-0514%15%18%8%3%3%0.7%1.5%
2026-08-0414%—19%9%3%3%0.7%1.5%
2026-08-0315%—19%9%3%3%0.7%1.5%
2026-08-0215%—19%9%3%3%0.7%1.4%
2026-08-0114%—19%9%3%3%0.7%1.4%
2026-07-3113%—19%8%3%3%0.7%1.4%
2026-07-3013%—19%8%3%3%0.7%1.4%
2026-07-2913%—19%——3%0.7%1.4%
2026-07-2813%—19%——2%0.7%1.4%
2026-07-2714%—19%——2%0.7%1.4%
2026-07-2614%—20%——2%0.7%1.1%
2026-07-2514%—20%——2%0.7%1.1%
2026-07-2414%—20%——2%0.7%1.1%
2026-07-2314%—20%——2%0.5%1.1%
2026-07-2214%—20%——2%0.5%1.1%
2026-07-2114%—20%——2%0.5%1.1%
2026-07-2014%—20%——0.9%0.7%1.1%
2026-07-1914%—20%——0.9%0.7%1.1%
2026-07-1814%—20%——0.9%0.7%1.4%
2026-07-1714%—20%——0.9%0.5%1.4%
2026-07-1614%—20%—2%0.9%0.5%1.4%
2026-07-1514%—20%—2%0.9%0.5%1.4%
2026-07-1414%—20%——0.9%0.7%1.4%
2026-07-1315%—20%—2%0.9%0.7%1.4%
2026-07-1215%—19%—2%0.9%0.8%1.4%
2026-07-1114%—19%——0.9%0.8%1.4%
2026-07-1015%—19%——1.1%0.8%1.4%
2026-07-0915%—18%——1.1%0.8%1.4%
2026-07-0816%—19%——1.2%0.8%1.4%
2026-07-0716%—18%——1.2%0.8%1.4%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — what are the odds?
As of October 12, 2026, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads at 18%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — have the odds gone up or down?
Up. Over the 98 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 16% on July 7, 2026 to 18% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — what are the highest and lowest odds?
Over 98 tracked days the odds ranged between 13% and 22%. The current reading of 18% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination” for 98 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads the field at 18%. The chance for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has risen from 16% to 18%, ranging between 13% and 22% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

More questions we track

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.