Today’s odds
As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds make Gavin Newsom the most likely outcome at 19%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
19%
How the odds have moved
Gavin NewsomAlexandria Ocasio-CortezMark KellyRahm EmanuelJon Stewart
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 19% | 19% | — |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13% | 13% | — |
| Mark Kelly | 2% | 3% | ▲ 1 |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2% | 2% | — |
| Jon Stewart | 2% | 2% | — |
| Wes Moore | 1.4% | 1.4% | — |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.1% | 1.1% | — |
| Michelle Obama | 0.9% | 0.9% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Gavin Newsom | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Mark Kelly | Rahm Emanuel | Jon Stewart | Wes Moore | J.B. Pritzker | Michelle Obama |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 19% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-28 | 19% | 13% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-27 | 19% | 14% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-26 | 20% | 14% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-25 | 20% | 14% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-24 | 20% | 14% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-23 | 20% | 14% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-22 | 20% | 14% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-21 | 20% | 14% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-20 | 20% | 14% | 0.9% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-19 | 20% | 14% | 0.9% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-18 | 20% | 14% | 0.9% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-17 | 20% | 14% | 0.9% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-16 | 20% | 14% | 0.9% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-15 | 20% | 14% | 0.9% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-14 | 20% | 14% | 0.9% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-13 | 20% | 15% | 0.9% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-12 | 19% | 15% | 0.9% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-11 | 19% | 14% | 0.9% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-10 | 19% | 15% | 1.1% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-09 | 18% | 15% | 1.1% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-08 | 19% | 16% | 1.2% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-07 | 18% | 16% | 1.2% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — what are the odds?
- As of July 29, 2026, Gavin Newsom leads at 19%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 23 tracked days the odds held near 18%, ending at 19% on July 29, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination” for 23 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, Gavin Newsom leads the field at 19%. The chance for Gavin Newsom has risen from 18% to 19%, ranging between 18% and 20% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.