Today’s odds
As of October 17, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 48%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Politics · tracked since July 22, 2026 · last updated 11:54 AM ET
48%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 16 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 50% | 48% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Javier Milei |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | 48% |
| 2026-10-16 | 50% |
| 2026-10-07 | — |
| 2026-10-04 | — |
| 2026-10-03 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | — |
| 2026-09-29 | — |
| 2026-09-28 | — |
| 2026-09-26 | — |
| 2026-09-25 | — |
| 2026-09-24 | — |
| 2026-09-23 | — |
| 2026-09-22 | — |
| 2026-09-21 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | — |
| 2026-09-17 | — |
| 2026-09-16 | — |
| 2026-09-15 | — |
| 2026-08-31 | 50% |
| 2026-08-30 | 52% |
| 2026-08-29 | 50% |
| 2026-08-28 | 50% |
| 2026-08-27 | 52% |
| 2026-08-26 | 52% |
| 2026-08-25 | 52% |
| 2026-08-24 | 52% |
| 2026-08-23 | 54% |
| 2026-08-22 | 50% |
| 2026-08-21 | 50% |
| 2026-08-20 | 50% |
| 2026-08-19 | 52% |
| 2026-08-18 | 53% |
| 2026-08-17 | 52% |
| 2026-08-16 | 52% |
| 2026-08-15 | 52% |
| 2026-08-14 | 50% |
| 2026-08-13 | 54% |
| 2026-08-12 | 55% |
| 2026-08-11 | 56% |
| 2026-08-10 | 56% |
| 2026-08-09 | 56% |
| 2026-08-08 | 54% |
| 2026-08-07 | 54% |
| 2026-08-06 | 52% |
| 2026-08-05 | 50% |
| 2026-08-04 | 52% |
| 2026-08-03 | 52% |
| 2026-08-02 | 54% |
| 2026-08-01 | 54% |
| 2026-07-30 | — |
| 2026-07-29 | — |
| 2026-07-28 | — |
| 2026-07-26 | — |
| 2026-07-25 | — |
| 2026-07-24 | — |
| 2026-07-22 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2027 Argentina presidential election — what are the odds?
- As of October 17, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 48%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2027 Argentina presidential election — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 33 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 54% on August 1, 2026 to 48% on October 17, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Who will win the 2027 Argentina presidential election — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 33 tracked days the odds ranged between 48% and 56%. The current reading of 48% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2027 Argentina presidential election” for 33 days, since July 22, 2026. As of October 17, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 48%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 54% to 48%, ranging between 48% and 56% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.