Politics · tracked since September 30, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
Final tracked odds
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
| Outcome | Oct 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | 8% | 8% | — |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 6% | 6% | — |
| Josh Shapiro | 5% | 5% | — |
| Jon Ossoff | 5% | 5% | — |
| James Talarico | 4% | 4% | — |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 4% | 4% | — |
| Donald J. Trump | 4% | 4% | — |
| Date | Marco Rubio | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Josh Shapiro | Jon Ossoff | James Talarico | Gretchen Whitmer | Donald J. Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 8% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| 2026-10-04 | 8% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| 2026-09-30 | 8% | — | — | — | — | 4% | 2% |
| 2026-09-29 * | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2028 United States vice presidential election” for 3 days, since September 30, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Marco Rubio leads at 8%. The final tracked chance for the leading outcome has held near 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.