Today’s odds
As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 97%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the Clacton by-election?
Politics · tracked since July 10, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
97%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nigel Farage | 96% | 97% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Nigel Farage |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 97% |
| 2026-07-28 | 96% |
| 2026-07-27 | 96% |
| 2026-07-26 | 96% |
| 2026-07-25 | 96% |
| 2026-07-24 | 96% |
| 2026-07-23 | 96% |
| 2026-07-22 | 95% |
| 2026-07-21 | 95% |
| 2026-07-20 | 95% |
| 2026-07-19 | 96% |
| 2026-07-18 | 96% |
| 2026-07-17 | 95% |
| 2026-07-11 | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the Clacton by-election — what are the odds?
- As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 97%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the Clacton by-election — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 13 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 95% on July 17, 2026 to 97% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Clacton by-election” for 13 days, since July 10, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 97%. The chance for a yes has risen from 95% to 97% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.