Final tracked odds
As of October 8, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 42%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Politics · tracked since September 17, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 8, 2026
42%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 7 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Republicans | 42% | 42% | — |
Full history table
| Date | the Republicans |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | 42% |
| 2026-10-07 | 42% |
| 2026-10-06 | 42% |
| 2026-10-05 | 42% |
| 2026-10-04 | 40% |
| 2026-10-03 | 40% |
| 2026-10-02 | 40% |
| 2026-10-01 | 42% |
| 2026-09-30 | 40% |
| 2026-09-29 | 40% |
| 2026-09-28 | 38% |
| 2026-09-26 | 34% |
| 2026-09-24 | — |
| 2026-09-23 | — |
| 2026-09-22 | — |
| 2026-09-21 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | — |
| 2026-09-17 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the Maine Senate race in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 8, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 42%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the Maine Senate race in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 12 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 34% on September 26, 2026 to 42% on October 8, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
- Who will win the Maine Senate race in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 12 tracked days the odds ranged between 34% and 42%. The final reading of 42% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Maine Senate race in 2026” for 12 days, since September 17, 2026. As of October 8, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 42%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 34% to 42%, ranging between 34% and 42% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 8, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.