Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 70%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Politics · tracked since August 4, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
70%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Democrats | 68% | 70% | ▲ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | the Democrats |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 70% |
| 2026-10-11 | 68% |
| 2026-10-10 | 70% |
| 2026-10-09 | 68% |
| 2026-10-08 | 72% |
| 2026-10-07 | 72% |
| 2026-10-06 | 74% |
| 2026-09-13 | — |
| 2026-09-12 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | — |
| 2026-09-10 | — |
| 2026-09-09 | — |
| 2026-09-08 | — |
| 2026-09-07 | — |
| 2026-09-06 | — |
| 2026-09-05 | — |
| 2026-09-04 | — |
| 2026-09-03 | — |
| 2026-09-02 | — |
| 2026-09-01 | — |
| 2026-08-31 | 64% |
| 2026-08-30 | 64% |
| 2026-08-29 | 64% |
| 2026-08-28 | 64% |
| 2026-08-27 | 64% |
| 2026-08-26 | 62% |
| 2026-08-25 | 62% |
| 2026-08-24 | 62% |
| 2026-08-23 | 62% |
| 2026-08-22 | 64% |
| 2026-08-21 | 64% |
| 2026-08-09 | — |
| 2026-08-08 | — |
| 2026-08-07 | — |
| 2026-08-06 | — |
| 2026-08-05 | 60% |
| 2026-08-04 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 70%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 19 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 60% on August 5, 2026 to 70% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 10 points.
- Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 19 tracked days the odds ranged between 60% and 74%. The current reading of 70% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026” for 19 days, since August 4, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 70%. The chance for a yes has risen from 60% to 70%, ranging between 60% and 74% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.