Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 54%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 16 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Politics · tracked since July 22, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
54%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 55% | 54% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Likud |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 54% |
| 2026-10-04 | 55% |
| 2026-10-03 | 54% |
| 2026-10-02 | 52% |
| 2026-09-28 | — |
| 2026-09-26 | — |
| 2026-09-25 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | 38% |
| 2026-09-19 | 40% |
| 2026-09-13 | 38% |
| 2026-09-12 | 38% |
| 2026-09-11 | 38% |
| 2026-09-10 | 40% |
| 2026-09-09 | 40% |
| 2026-09-08 | — |
| 2026-09-07 | — |
| 2026-07-23 | 56% |
| 2026-07-22 | 56% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 54%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 13 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 56% on July 22, 2026 to 54% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 13 tracked days the odds ranged between 38% and 56%. The final reading of 54% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election” for 13 days, since July 22, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 54%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 56% to 54%, ranging between 38% and 56% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.