Final tracked odds
As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 58%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 30, 2026
58%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Republicans | 58% | 58% | — |
Full history table
| Date | the Republicans |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 58% |
| 2026-09-29 | 58% |
| 2026-09-28 | 57% |
| 2026-09-27 | 58% |
| 2026-09-26 | 58% |
| 2026-09-25 | 56% |
| 2026-09-24 | — |
| 2026-09-23 | — |
| 2026-09-22 | — |
| 2026-09-13 | 60% |
| 2026-09-12 | 61% |
| 2026-09-11 | 66% |
| 2026-09-10 | 66% |
| 2026-09-09 | 66% |
| 2026-09-08 | 66% |
| 2026-09-01 | 64% |
| 2026-07-19 | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — |
| 2026-07-16 | 56% |
| 2026-07-15 | 56% |
| 2026-07-14 | 56% |
| 2026-07-13 | 56% |
| 2026-07-12 | 56% |
| 2026-07-11 | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 57% |
| 2026-07-09 | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 58% |
| 2026-07-07 | 58% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the Iowa Senate race in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 58%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the Iowa Senate race in 2026 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 21 tracked days the odds held near 58%, ending at 58% on September 30, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
- Who will win the Iowa Senate race in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 21 tracked days the odds ranged between 56% and 66%. The final reading of 58% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Iowa Senate race in 2026” for 21 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 58%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 58%, ranging between 56% and 66% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.