Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 72%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Politics · tracked since August 1, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
72%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 74% | 72% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Mary Peltola |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 72% |
| 2026-10-11 | 74% |
| 2026-10-09 | 74% |
| 2026-09-30 | — |
| 2026-09-29 | — |
| 2026-09-28 | — |
| 2026-09-27 | — |
| 2026-09-26 | — |
| 2026-09-25 | — |
| 2026-09-24 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | 74% |
| 2026-09-19 | 72% |
| 2026-09-18 | 68% |
| 2026-09-08 | — |
| 2026-09-07 | — |
| 2026-09-06 | — |
| 2026-09-05 | — |
| 2026-09-04 | — |
| 2026-09-03 | — |
| 2026-08-28 | — |
| 2026-08-06 | — |
| 2026-08-05 | — |
| 2026-08-04 | — |
| 2026-08-03 | — |
| 2026-08-02 | — |
| 2026-08-01 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 72%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 68% on September 18, 2026 to 72% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
- Who will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 68% and 74%. The current reading of 72% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026” for 6 days, since August 1, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 72%. The chance for a yes has risen from 68% to 72%, ranging between 68% and 74% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.