The Morning Line

Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

58%

Today’s odds

As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds make the Democrats the most likely outcome at 58%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

the Democratsthe RepublicansJD VanceGavin NewsomTucker Carlson
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 13Jul 18Jul 23Jul 29the Democrats — Jul 7: 58%the Democrats — Jul 8: 58%the Democrats — Jul 12: 58%the Democrats — Jul 13: 58%the Democrats — Jul 20: 58%the Democrats — Jul 21: 58%the Democrats — Jul 22: 58%the Democrats — Jul 23: 58%the Democrats — Jul 24: 57%the Democrats — Jul 25: 57%the Democrats — Jul 26: 57%the Democrats — Jul 27: 58%the Democrats — Jul 28: 58%the Democrats — Jul 29: 58%58%the Republicans — Jul 7: 40%the Republicans — Jul 8: 40%the Republicans — Jul 9: 40%the Republicans — Jul 10: 40%the Republicans — Jul 11: 40%the Republicans — Jul 12: 40%the Republicans — Jul 13: 40%the Republicans — Jul 14: 40%the Republicans — Jul 15: 40%the Republicans — Jul 16: 40%the Republicans — Jul 17: 40%the Republicans — Jul 18: 40%the Republicans — Jul 19: 40%the Republicans — Jul 21: 40%the Republicans — Jul 22: 40%the Republicans — Jul 23: 40%the Republicans — Jul 24: 40%the Republicans — Jul 25: 40%the Republicans — Jul 26: 40%the Republicans — Jul 27: 40%the Republicans — Jul 28: 40%the Republicans — Jul 29: 40%JD Vance — Jul 7: 20%JD Vance — Jul 8: 20%JD Vance — Jul 9: 20%JD Vance — Jul 10: 20%JD Vance — Jul 11: 20%JD Vance — Jul 12: 20%JD Vance — Jul 13: 20%JD Vance — Jul 14: 20%JD Vance — Jul 15: 20%JD Vance — Jul 16: 20%JD Vance — Jul 17: 20%JD Vance — Jul 18: 20%JD Vance — Jul 19: 20%JD Vance — Jul 20: 20%JD Vance — Jul 21: 20%JD Vance — Jul 22: 20%JD Vance — Jul 23: 20%JD Vance — Jul 24: 20%JD Vance — Jul 25: 20%JD Vance — Jul 26: 20%JD Vance — Jul 27: 20%JD Vance — Jul 28: 20%JD Vance — Jul 29: 20%Gavin Newsom — Jul 7: 12%Gavin Newsom — Jul 8: 12%Gavin Newsom — Jul 9: 12%Gavin Newsom — Jul 10: 11%Gavin Newsom — Jul 11: 12%Gavin Newsom — Jul 12: 12%Gavin Newsom — Jul 13: 12%Gavin Newsom — Jul 14: 12%Gavin Newsom — Jul 15: 12%Gavin Newsom — Jul 16: 12%Gavin Newsom — Jul 17: 12%Gavin Newsom — Jul 18: 12%Gavin Newsom — Jul 19: 12%Gavin Newsom — Jul 20: 12%Gavin Newsom — Jul 21: 13%Gavin Newsom — Jul 22: 13%Gavin Newsom — Jul 23: 13%Gavin Newsom — Jul 24: 13%Gavin Newsom — Jul 25: 13%Gavin Newsom — Jul 26: 13%Gavin Newsom — Jul 27: 12%Gavin Newsom — Jul 28: 12%Gavin Newsom — Jul 29: 12%Tucker Carlson — Jul 8: 2%Tucker Carlson — Jul 9: 2%Tucker Carlson — Jul 10: 2%Tucker Carlson — Jul 11: 2%Tucker Carlson — Jul 12: 2%Tucker Carlson — Jul 13: 2%Tucker Carlson — Jul 14: 2%Tucker Carlson — Jul 15: 2%Tucker Carlson — Jul 16: 2%Tucker Carlson — Jul 17: 2%Tucker Carlson — Jul 18: 1.5%Tucker Carlson — Jul 19: 1.5%Tucker Carlson — Jul 20: 1.5%Tucker Carlson — Jul 21: 1.5%Tucker Carlson — Jul 22: 1.5%Tucker Carlson — Jul 23: 1.5%Tucker Carlson — Jul 24: 1.5%Tucker Carlson — Jul 25: 1.5%Tucker Carlson — Jul 26: 1.5%Tucker Carlson — Jul 27: 1.5%Tucker Carlson — Jul 28: 1.5%Tucker Carlson — Jul 29: 1.2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 28TodayMove
the Democrats58%58%—
the Republicans40%40%—
JD Vance20%20%—
Gavin Newsom12%12%—
Tucker Carlson1.5%1.2%—
Andy Beshear1.1%1.1%—
Donald Trump Jr.1.1%1.1%—
Greg Abbott0.9%0.9%—
Full history table
Datethe Democratsthe RepublicansJD VanceGavin NewsomTucker CarlsonAndy BeshearDonald Trump Jr.Greg Abbott
2026-07-2958%40%20%12%1.2%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-2858%40%20%12%1.5%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-2758%40%20%12%1.5%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-2657%40%20%13%1.5%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-2557%40%20%13%1.5%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-2457%40%20%13%1.5%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-2358%40%20%13%1.5%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-2258%40%20%13%1.5%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-2158%40%20%13%1.5%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-2058%—20%12%1.5%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-19—40%20%12%1.5%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-18—40%20%12%1.5%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-17—40%20%12%2%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-16—40%20%12%2%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-15—40%20%12%2%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-14—40%20%12%2%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-1358%40%20%12%2%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-1258%40%20%12%2%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-11—40%20%12%2%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-10—40%20%11%2%1.1%1.1%0.9%
2026-07-09—40%20%12%2%1.1%—0.9%
2026-07-0858%40%20%12%2%0.9%—0.9%
2026-07-0758%40%20%12%—0.9%1.1%0.9%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election — what are the odds?
As of July 29, 2026, the Democrats leads at 58%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election — how much have the odds move?
Barely. Across 14 tracked days the odds held near 58%, ending at 58% on July 29, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election” for 14 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, the Democrats leads the field at 58%. The chance for the Democrats has held near 58% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

Related questions

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.