The Morning Line

Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET

20%

Today’s odds

As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds make JD Vance the most likely outcome at 20%.

▲ 2 since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

JD VanceAlexandria Ocasio-CortezGavin NewsomMarco RubioAndy Beshear
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 15Aug 6Aug 28Sep 20Oct 12JD Vance — Jul 15: 20%JD Vance — Oct 12: 20%20%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — Jul 30: 9%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — Oct 12: 13%Gavin Newsom — Jul 15: 12%Gavin Newsom — Oct 12: 9%Marco Rubio — Oct 6: 9%Marco Rubio — Oct 12: 8%Andy Beshear — Jul 15: 1.1%Andy Beshear — Oct 12: 2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeOct 11TodayMove
JD Vance18%20%▲ 2
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%13%—
Gavin Newsom9%9%—
Marco Rubio8%8%—
Andy Beshear2%2%—
Tucker Carlson2%2%—
Mark Kelly1.4%1.4%—
Wes Moore0.9%0.9%—
Full history table
DateJD VanceAlexandria Ocasio-CortezGavin NewsomMarco RubioAndy BeshearTucker CarlsonMark KellyWes Moore
2026-10-1220%13%9%8%2%2%1.4%0.9%
2026-10-1118%13%9%8%2%2%1.4%0.9%
2026-10-1019%13%9%8%2%2%1.4%0.9%
2026-10-0920%13%9%7%2%2%1.4%0.9%
2026-10-0820%13%8%7%2%2%1.4%0.9%
2026-10-0720%13%8%5%2%2%—0.9%
2026-10-0620%14%8%9%2%2%—0.9%
2026-10-0520%—8%—2%2%——
2026-10-0420%—7%—2%2%——
2026-10-0321%—8%—2%2%——
2026-10-0221%—8%—1.5%2%——
2026-10-0121%13%8%—2%2%——
2026-09-3021%13%8%—1.5%2%——
2026-09-2921%13%8%—1.4%2%——
2026-09-2821%13%8%—1.3%2%——
2026-09-2721%13%8%—1.2%2%——
2026-09-2621%13%8%—1.1%2%——
2026-09-2521%13%8%—1.1%2%——
2026-09-2421%13%9%—1.1%2%——
2026-09-2321%13%7%—1.1%2%——
2026-09-2221%13%7%—1.1%2%——
2026-09-2121%13%8%—1.1%2%——
2026-09-2021%13%8%—1.1%2%——
2026-09-1921%13%8%—1.1%2%——
2026-09-1821%13%8%—1.1%2%——
2026-09-1722%13%8%—1.1%2%——
2026-09-1623%—8%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-09-1523%—8%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-09-1424%—8%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-09-1324%—7%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-09-1224%—8%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-09-1124%—8%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-09-1024%—7%—1.1%1.4%——
2026-09-0924%—7%—1.1%1.4%——
2026-09-0825%—7%—1.1%1.2%——
2026-09-0725%—7%—1.1%1.2%——
2026-09-0625%—8%—1.1%1.2%——
2026-09-0525%—7%—1.1%1.1%——
2026-09-0424%13%9%—1.1%1.1%——
2026-09-0324%13%9%—1.1%1.1%——
2026-09-0225%11%9%—1.1%1.1%——
2026-09-0125%11%9%—1.1%1.1%——
2026-08-3125%11%8%—1.1%1.1%——
2026-08-3025%11%7%—1.1%1.1%——
2026-08-2925%11%8%—1.1%1.1%——
2026-08-2824%13%9%—1.1%1.1%——
2026-08-2724%14%9%—1.1%1.1%——
2026-08-2623%14%9%—1.1%1.2%——
2026-08-2523%14%9%—1.1%1.3%——
2026-08-2423%14%9%—1.1%1.3%——
2026-08-2323%14%8%—1.1%1.4%——
2026-08-2222%13%8%—1.0%1.4%——
2026-08-2120%13%8%—1.0%1.1%——
2026-08-2020%13%9%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-08-1921%13%9%—1.1%1.4%——
2026-08-1821%12%8%—1.1%2%——
2026-08-1723%13%8%—1.1%1.3%——
2026-08-1623%13%9%—1.1%2%1.1%—
2026-08-1523%13%9%—1.1%2%0.9%—
2026-08-1423%13%9%—1.1%2%——
2026-08-1323%13%9%—1.2%2%——
2026-08-1222%11%10%—1.4%2%——
2026-08-1122%9%10%—1.4%2%——
2026-08-1022%9%10%—1.4%2%——
2026-08-0921%10%10%—1.4%2%——
2026-08-0821%10%10%—1.4%2%——
2026-08-0721%11%11%—2%2%——
2026-08-0621%9%12%—1.2%2%——
2026-08-0521%9%12%—1.2%1.4%——
2026-08-0421%9%12%—1.2%1.1%——
2026-08-0321%9%12%—1.2%1.4%——
2026-08-0221%10%12%—1.2%1.4%——
2026-08-0120%9%12%—1.2%1.4%——
2026-07-3120%9%11%—1.2%1.0%——
2026-07-3020%9%12%—1.2%1.1%——
2026-07-2920%—12%—1.1%1.2%——
2026-07-2820%—12%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-07-2720%—12%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-07-2620%—13%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-07-2520%—13%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-07-2420%—13%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-07-2320%—13%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-07-2220%—13%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-07-2120%—13%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-07-2020%—12%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-07-1920%—12%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-07-1820%—12%—1.1%1.5%——
2026-07-1720%—12%—1.1%2%——
2026-07-1620%—12%—1.1%2%——
2026-07-1520%—12%—1.1%2%——
2026-07-1420%—12%—1.1%2%——
2026-07-1320%—12%—1.1%2%——
2026-07-1220%—12%—1.1%2%——
2026-07-1120%—12%—1.1%2%——
2026-07-1020%—11%—1.1%2%——
2026-07-0920%—12%—1.1%2%——
2026-07-0820%—12%—0.9%2%——
2026-07-0720%—12%—0.9%———

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election — what are the odds?
As of October 12, 2026, JD Vance leads at 20%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election — how much have the odds move?
Barely. Across 98 tracked days the odds held near 20%, ending at 20% on October 12, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election — what are the highest and lowest odds?
Over 98 tracked days the odds ranged between 18% and 25%. The current reading of 20% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election” for 98 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, JD Vance leads the field at 20%. The chance for JD Vance has held near 20%, ranging between 18% and 25% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

Related questions

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.