The Morning Line

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

80%

Today’s odds

As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds make Magdalena Andersson the most likely outcome at 80%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Magdalena AnderssonEbba BuschNooshi Dadgostar
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 13Jul 18Jul 23Jul 29Magdalena Andersson — Jul 20: 77%Magdalena Andersson — Jul 21: 77%Magdalena Andersson — Jul 27: 78%Magdalena Andersson — Jul 28: 80%Magdalena Andersson — Jul 29: 80%80%Ebba Busch — Jul 7: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 8: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 9: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 10: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 11: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 13: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 14: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 15: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 16: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 17: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 18: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 19: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 21: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 22: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 23: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 24: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 25: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 26: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 27: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 28: 0.4%Ebba Busch — Jul 29: 0.5%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 7: 0.1%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 8: 0.1%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 9: 0.1%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 10: 0.1%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 11: 0.1%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 12: 0.1%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 13: 0.1%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 15: 0.1%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 16: 0.1%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 17: 0.1%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 20: 0.1%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 21: 0.1%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 22: 0.4%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 23: 0.3%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 24: 0.4%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 25: 0.4%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 26: 0.4%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 27: 0.2%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 28: 0.4%Nooshi Dadgostar — Jul 29: 0.1%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 28TodayMove
Magdalena Andersson80%80%—
Ebba Busch0.4%0.5%—
Nooshi Dadgostar0.4%0.1%—
Full history table
DateMagdalena AnderssonEbba BuschNooshi Dadgostar
2026-07-2980%0.5%0.1%
2026-07-2880%0.4%0.4%
2026-07-2778%0.4%0.2%
2026-07-26—0.4%0.4%
2026-07-25—0.4%0.4%
2026-07-24—0.4%0.4%
2026-07-23—0.4%0.3%
2026-07-22—0.4%0.4%
2026-07-2177%0.4%0.1%
2026-07-2077%—0.1%
2026-07-19—0.4%—
2026-07-18—0.4%—
2026-07-17—0.4%0.1%
2026-07-16—0.4%0.1%
2026-07-15—0.4%0.1%
2026-07-14—0.4%—
2026-07-13—0.4%0.1%
2026-07-12——0.1%
2026-07-11—0.4%0.1%
2026-07-10—0.4%0.1%
2026-07-09—0.4%0.1%
2026-07-08—0.4%0.1%
2026-07-07—0.4%0.1%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden — what are the odds?
As of July 29, 2026, Magdalena Andersson leads at 80%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden — have the odds gone up or down?
Up. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 77% on July 20, 2026 to 80% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 3 points.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden” for 5 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, Magdalena Andersson leads the field at 80%. The chance for Magdalena Andersson has risen from 77% to 80%, ranging between 77% and 80% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

Related questions

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.