Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 78%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
78%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 78% | 78% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 78% |
| 2026-10-11 | 78% |
| 2026-10-10 | 77% |
| 2026-10-09 | 77% |
| 2026-10-08 | 77% |
| 2026-10-07 | 77% |
| 2026-10-06 | 74% |
| 2026-10-05 | 75% |
| 2026-10-04 | — |
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Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2026 Alaska governor election — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 78%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2026 Alaska governor election — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 8 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 75% on October 5, 2026 to 78% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 Alaska governor election” for 8 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 78%. The chance for a yes has risen from 75% to 78%, ranging between 74% and 78% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.