The Morning Line

Who will win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

36%

Today’s odds

As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds make Tom Begich the most likely outcome at 36%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Tom BegichNancy Dahlstrom
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 13Jul 18Jul 23Jul 29Tom Begich — Jul 7: 25%Tom Begich — Jul 8: 23%Tom Begich — Jul 9: 26%Tom Begich — Jul 10: 30%Tom Begich — Jul 11: 30%Tom Begich — Jul 12: 30%Tom Begich — Jul 13: 30%Tom Begich — Jul 14: 30%Tom Begich — Jul 15: 31%Tom Begich — Jul 16: 32%Tom Begich — Jul 23: 34%Tom Begich — Jul 24: 34%Tom Begich — Jul 25: 36%Tom Begich — Jul 26: 36%Tom Begich — Jul 27: 36%Tom Begich — Jul 28: 36%Tom Begich — Jul 29: 36%36%Nancy Dahlstrom — Jul 7: 0.5%Nancy Dahlstrom — Jul 8: 3%Nancy Dahlstrom — Jul 12: 1.4%Nancy Dahlstrom — Jul 13: 1.2%Nancy Dahlstrom — Jul 15: 0.4%Nancy Dahlstrom — Jul 20: 1.1%Nancy Dahlstrom — Jul 21: 0.9%Nancy Dahlstrom — Jul 22: 0.9%Nancy Dahlstrom — Jul 23: 0.9%Nancy Dahlstrom — Jul 24: 0.9%Nancy Dahlstrom — Jul 27: 0.9%Nancy Dahlstrom — Jul 28: 0.9%Nancy Dahlstrom — Jul 29: 0.8%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 28TodayMove
Tom Begich36%36%—
Nancy Dahlstrom0.9%0.8%—
Full history table
DateTom BegichNancy Dahlstrom
2026-07-2936%0.8%
2026-07-2836%0.9%
2026-07-2736%0.9%
2026-07-2636%—
2026-07-2536%—
2026-07-2434%0.9%
2026-07-2334%0.9%
2026-07-22—0.9%
2026-07-21—0.9%
2026-07-20—1.1%
2026-07-19——
2026-07-18——
2026-07-17——
2026-07-1632%—
2026-07-1531%0.4%
2026-07-1430%—
2026-07-1330%1.2%
2026-07-1230%1.4%
2026-07-1130%—
2026-07-1030%—
2026-07-0926%—
2026-07-0823%3%
2026-07-0725%0.5%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the 2026 Alaska governor election — what are the odds?
As of July 29, 2026, Tom Begich leads at 36%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the 2026 Alaska governor election — have the odds gone up or down?
Up. Over the 17 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 25% on July 7, 2026 to 36% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 11 points.
Who will win the 2026 Alaska governor election — what are the highest and lowest odds?
Over 17 tracked days the odds ranged between 23% and 36%. The current reading of 36% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 Alaska governor election” for 17 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, Tom Begich leads the field at 36%. The chance for Tom Begich has risen from 25% to 36%, ranging between 23% and 36% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

Related questions

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.