Final tracked odds
As of September 22, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 56%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 9 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 22, 2026
56%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 21 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass | 56% | 56% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Karen Bass |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 56% |
| 2026-09-21 | 56% |
| 2026-09-20 | 62% |
| 2026-09-19 | 62% |
| 2026-09-18 | 62% |
| 2026-09-17 | 60% |
| 2026-09-16 | 64% |
| 2026-09-15 | 66% |
| 2026-09-14 | 66% |
| 2026-09-13 | 66% |
| 2026-09-12 | 66% |
| 2026-09-11 | 66% |
| 2026-09-10 | 66% |
| 2026-09-09 | 64% |
| 2026-09-08 | 64% |
| 2026-09-07 | 64% |
| 2026-09-06 | 64% |
| 2026-09-05 | 64% |
| 2026-09-04 | 64% |
| 2026-09-03 | 64% |
| 2026-09-02 | 64% |
| 2026-09-01 | 64% |
| 2026-08-24 | 64% |
| 2026-08-22 | 64% |
| 2026-08-21 | 64% |
| 2026-08-20 | 64% |
| 2026-08-19 | 64% |
| 2026-08-18 | 64% |
| 2026-08-17 | 70% |
| 2026-08-16 | 68% |
| 2026-08-15 | 68% |
| 2026-08-14 | 66% |
| 2026-07-19 | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — |
| 2026-07-15 | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 22, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 56%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 32 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 66% on August 14, 2026 to 56% on September 22, 2026 — a change of 10 points.
- Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 32 tracked days the odds ranged between 56% and 70%. The final reading of 56% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election” for 32 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 22, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 56%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 66% to 56%, ranging between 56% and 70% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 22, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.