Final tracked odds
As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 64%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 24, 2026
64%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 22 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass | 64% | 64% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Karen Bass |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 64% |
| 2026-08-22 | 64% |
| 2026-08-21 | 64% |
| 2026-08-20 | 64% |
| 2026-08-19 | 64% |
| 2026-08-18 | 64% |
| 2026-08-17 | 70% |
| 2026-08-16 | 68% |
| 2026-08-15 | 68% |
| 2026-08-14 | 66% |
| 2026-07-19 | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — |
| 2026-07-15 | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 24, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 64%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 10 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 66% on August 14, 2026 to 64% on August 24, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election” for 10 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 64%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 66% to 64%, ranging between 64% and 70% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 24, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.