Today’s odds
As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds make Darline Graham the most likely outcome at 74%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
Politics · tracked since July 13, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
74%
How the odds have moved
Darline GrahamRalph NormanRussell FryMark Sanford
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darline Graham | 74% | 74% | — |
| Ralph Norman | 18% | 18% | — |
| Russell Fry | 6% | 6% | — |
| Mark Sanford | 2% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Darline Graham | Ralph Norman | Russell Fry | Mark Sanford |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 74% | 18% | 6% | 2% |
| 2026-07-28 | 74% | 18% | 6% | 2% |
| 2026-07-27 | 72% | 18% | 7% | 2% |
| 2026-07-26 | 72% | 18% | 8% | 2% |
| 2026-07-25 | 70% | 18% | 8% | 2% |
| 2026-07-24 | 70% | 18% | 8% | 2% |
| 2026-07-23 | 66% | 22% | 6% | 3% |
| 2026-07-22 | 72% | 16% | 8% | — |
| 2026-07-21 | — | 8% | 10% | — |
| 2026-07-20 | — | 12% | 14% | — |
| 2026-07-19 | — | 22% | 14% | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — | 24% | 22% | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — | 6% | 18% | — |
| 2026-07-16 | — | 26% | 39% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | — | 22% | 58% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — | 16% | 64% | — |
| 2026-07-13 | — | 14% | 62% | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary — what are the odds?
- As of July 29, 2026, Darline Graham leads at 74%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 8 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 72% on July 22, 2026 to 74% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 8 tracked days the odds ranged between 66% and 74%. The current reading of 74% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary” for 8 days, since July 13, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, Darline Graham leads the field at 74%. The chance for Darline Graham has risen from 72% to 74%, ranging between 66% and 74% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.