Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds make Gary McCoy the most likely outcome at 77%.
▼ 12 since the previous update. ▼ 10 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2026 San Francisco Board of Supervisors District 8 election?
Politics · tracked since October 2, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
77%
How the odds have moved
Gary McCoyManny YekutielMichael NguyenDarshini Patel
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 6 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gary McCoy | 89% | 77% | ▼ 12 |
| Manny Yekutiel | 2% | 11% | ▲ 10 |
| Michael Nguyen | 4% | 6% | ▲ 1 |
| Darshini Patel | 4% | 4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Gary McCoy | Manny Yekutiel | Michael Nguyen | Darshini Patel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 77% | 11% | 6% | 4% |
| 2026-10-06 | 89% | 2% | 4% | 4% |
| 2026-10-05 | 88% | 2% | 5% | 4% |
| 2026-10-04 | 89% | 2% | 4% | 4% |
| 2026-10-03 | 94% | 2% | 4% | 4% |
| 2026-10-02 | 94% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2026 San Francisco Board of Supervisors District 8 election — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, Gary McCoy leads at 77%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2026 San Francisco Board of Supervisors District 8 election — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 94% on October 2, 2026 to 77% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 17 points.
- Who will win the 2026 San Francisco Board of Supervisors District 8 election — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 77% and 94%. The current reading of 77% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 San Francisco Board of Supervisors District 8 election” for 6 days, since October 2, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, Gary McCoy leads the field at 77%. The chance for Gary McCoy has fallen from 94% to 77%, ranging between 77% and 94% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.