The Morning Line

Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

62%

Today’s odds

As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds make Troy Jackson the most likely outcome at 62%.

▲ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Troy JacksonSusan CollinsJared GoldenJanet Mills
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 13Jul 18Jul 23Jul 29Troy Jackson — Jul 7: 32%Troy Jackson — Jul 8: 32%Troy Jackson — Jul 9: 36%Troy Jackson — Jul 10: 32%Troy Jackson — Jul 11: 38%Troy Jackson — Jul 12: 44%Troy Jackson — Jul 13: 54%Troy Jackson — Jul 14: 54%Troy Jackson — Jul 15: 52%Troy Jackson — Jul 16: 52%Troy Jackson — Jul 17: 57%Troy Jackson — Jul 18: 56%Troy Jackson — Jul 19: 66%Troy Jackson — Jul 20: 66%Troy Jackson — Jul 21: 64%Troy Jackson — Jul 22: 64%Troy Jackson — Jul 23: 64%Troy Jackson — Jul 24: 64%Troy Jackson — Jul 25: 62%Troy Jackson — Jul 26: 62%Troy Jackson — Jul 27: 62%Troy Jackson — Jul 28: 62%Troy Jackson — Jul 29: 62%62%Susan Collins — Jul 7: 44%Susan Collins — Jul 8: 42%Susan Collins — Jul 9: 38%Susan Collins — Jul 10: 38%Susan Collins — Jul 11: 38%Susan Collins — Jul 12: 38%Susan Collins — Jul 13: 34%Susan Collins — Jul 14: 32%Susan Collins — Jul 15: 34%Susan Collins — Jul 16: 34%Susan Collins — Jul 17: 34%Susan Collins — Jul 18: 34%Susan Collins — Jul 19: 34%Susan Collins — Jul 20: 36%Susan Collins — Jul 21: 36%Susan Collins — Jul 22: 36%Susan Collins — Jul 23: 36%Susan Collins — Jul 24: 38%Susan Collins — Jul 25: 39%Susan Collins — Jul 26: 38%Susan Collins — Jul 27: 38%Susan Collins — Jul 28: 38%Susan Collins — Jul 29: 36%Jared Golden — Jul 7: 0.9%Jared Golden — Jul 8: 0.6%Jared Golden — Jul 9: 0.9%Jared Golden — Jul 10: 0.7%Jared Golden — Jul 11: 0.5%Jared Golden — Jul 12: 0.5%Jared Golden — Jul 13: 0.4%Jared Golden — Jul 14: 0.4%Jared Golden — Jul 28: 0.2%Jared Golden — Jul 29: 0.3%Janet Mills — Jul 7: 2%Janet Mills — Jul 8: 2%Janet Mills — Jul 9: 1.5%Janet Mills — Jul 10: 0.1%Janet Mills — Jul 11: 0.1%Janet Mills — Jul 12: 0.1%Janet Mills — Jul 24: 0.1%Janet Mills — Jul 25: 0.1%Janet Mills — Jul 26: 0.1%Janet Mills — Jul 27: 0.1%Janet Mills — Jul 28: 0.1%Janet Mills — Jul 29: 0.1%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 28TodayMove
Troy Jackson62%62%▲ 1
Susan Collins38%36%▼ 1
Jared Golden0.2%0.3%—
Janet Mills0.1%0.1%—
Full history table
DateTroy JacksonSusan CollinsJared GoldenJanet Mills
2026-07-2962%36%0.3%0.1%
2026-07-2862%38%0.2%0.1%
2026-07-2762%38%—0.1%
2026-07-2662%38%—0.1%
2026-07-2562%39%—0.1%
2026-07-2464%38%—0.1%
2026-07-2364%36%——
2026-07-2264%36%——
2026-07-2164%36%——
2026-07-2066%36%——
2026-07-1966%34%——
2026-07-1856%34%——
2026-07-1757%34%——
2026-07-1652%34%——
2026-07-1552%34%——
2026-07-1454%32%0.4%—
2026-07-1354%34%0.4%—
2026-07-1244%38%0.5%0.1%
2026-07-1138%38%0.5%0.1%
2026-07-1032%38%0.7%0.1%
2026-07-0936%38%0.9%1.5%
2026-07-0832%42%0.6%2%
2026-07-0732%44%0.9%2%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election — what are the odds?
As of July 29, 2026, Troy Jackson leads at 62%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election — have the odds gone up or down?
Up. Over the 23 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 32% on July 7, 2026 to 62% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 30 points.
Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election — what are the highest and lowest odds?
Over 23 tracked days the odds ranged between 32% and 66%. The current reading of 62% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election” for 23 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, Troy Jackson leads the field at 62%. The chance for Troy Jackson has risen from 32% to 62%, ranging between 32% and 66% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

Related questions

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.