Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds make Ron Nirenberg the most likely outcome at 98%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 19 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2026 Bexar County Judge general election?
Politics · tracked since September 29, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
98%
How the odds have moved
Ron NirenbergPatrick Von Dohlen
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Nirenberg | — | 98% | — |
| Patrick Von Dohlen | 2% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Ron Nirenberg | Patrick Von Dohlen |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 98% | 2% |
| 2026-10-04 | — | 2% |
| 2026-10-01 | 90% | 8% |
| 2026-09-30 | 90% | 8% |
| 2026-09-29 | 80% | 16% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2026 Bexar County Judge general election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, Ron Nirenberg led at 98%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2026 Bexar County Judge general election — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 80% on September 29, 2026 to 98% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 18 points.
- Who will win the 2026 Bexar County Judge general election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 80% and 98%. The final reading of 98% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 Bexar County Judge general election” for 4 days, since September 29, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, Ron Nirenberg leads the field at 98%. The final tracked chance for Ron Nirenberg has risen from 80% to 98%, ranging between 80% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.