Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds make Flávio Bolsonaro the most likely outcome at 86%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
86%
How the odds have moved
Flávio BolsonaroLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 88% | 86% | ▼ 2 |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 12% | 12% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Flávio Bolsonaro | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 86% | 12% |
| 2026-10-11 | 88% | 12% |
| 2026-10-10 | 88% | 12% |
| 2026-10-09 | 87% | 12% |
| 2026-10-08 | 86% | 14% |
| 2026-10-07 | 85% | 14% |
| 2026-10-06 | 85% | 16% |
| 2026-10-05 | 82% | 18% |
| 2026-10-04 | 62% | 38% |
| 2026-10-03 | 57% | 42% |
| 2026-10-02 | — | 42% |
| 2026-10-01 | — | — |
| 2026-09-30 | — | — |
| 2026-09-29 | — | — |
| 2026-09-28 | — | — |
| 2026-09-27 | — | — |
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| 2026-07-10 | — | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | — | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, Flávio Bolsonaro leads at 86%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 10 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 57% on October 3, 2026 to 86% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 29 points.
- Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 10 tracked days the odds ranged between 57% and 88%. The current reading of 86% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election” for 10 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, Flávio Bolsonaro leads the field at 86%. The chance for Flávio Bolsonaro has risen from 57% to 86%, ranging between 57% and 88% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.