Final tracked odds
As of July 19, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Angela Rayner leads at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 19, 2026
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Angela RaynerWes StreetingRupert Lowe
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 18 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Rayner | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Wes Streeting | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Rupert Lowe | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Angela Rayner | Wes Streeting | Rupert Lowe |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 0.2% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, July 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 13 tracked days the odds held near 0.1%, ending at 0.1% on July 19, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026” for 13 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 19, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Angela Rayner leads at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for the leading outcome has held near 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.