The Morning Line

Who will be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Politics · tracked since July 18, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 18, 2026

99.0%

Final tracked odds

As of August 18, 2026, market-consensus odds make Byron Donalds the most likely outcome at 99.0%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Byron DonaldsWilton SimpsonJay Collins
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 18Jul 27Aug 3Aug 11Aug 18Byron Donalds — Jul 18: 97%Byron Donalds — Aug 6: 98%Byron Donalds — Aug 18: 99.0%99.0%Wilton Simpson — Jul 20: 0.1%Wilton Simpson — Jul 21: 0.1%Wilton Simpson — Aug 1: 0.1%Wilton Simpson — Aug 2: 0.1%Wilton Simpson — Aug 3: 0.1%Wilton Simpson — Aug 4: 0.1%Wilton Simpson — Aug 5: 0.1%Wilton Simpson — Aug 6: 0.1%Wilton Simpson — Aug 7: 0.1%Wilton Simpson — Aug 8: 0.1%Wilton Simpson — Aug 9: 0.1%Wilton Simpson — Aug 10: 0.1%Wilton Simpson — Aug 11: 0.1%Wilton Simpson — Aug 13: 0.1%Wilton Simpson — Aug 18: 0.1%Jay Collins — Aug 1: 0.5%Jay Collins — Aug 2: 0.7%Jay Collins — Aug 3: 0.5%Jay Collins — Aug 4: 0.3%Jay Collins — Aug 5: 0.1%Jay Collins — Aug 6: 0.4%Jay Collins — Aug 7: 0.8%Jay Collins — Aug 8: 0.7%Jay Collins — Aug 9: 0.7%Jay Collins — Aug 10: 0.7%Jay Collins — Aug 11: 0.7%Jay Collins — Aug 12: 0.4%Jay Collins — Aug 13: 0.1%Jay Collins — Aug 14: 0.1%Jay Collins — Aug 15: 0.1%Jay Collins — Aug 16: 0.1%Jay Collins — Aug 17: 0.1%Jay Collins — Aug 18: 0.1%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeAug 17TodayMove
Byron Donalds—99.0%—
Wilton Simpson—0.1%—
Jay Collins0.1%0.1%—
Full history table
DateByron DonaldsWilton SimpsonJay Collins
2026-08-1899.0%0.1%0.1%
2026-08-17——0.1%
2026-08-16——0.1%
2026-08-15——0.1%
2026-08-14——0.1%
2026-08-13—0.1%0.1%
2026-08-12——0.4%
2026-08-11—0.1%0.7%
2026-08-10—0.1%0.7%
2026-08-09—0.1%0.7%
2026-08-08—0.1%0.7%
2026-08-07—0.1%0.8%
2026-08-0698%0.1%0.4%
2026-08-05—0.1%0.1%
2026-08-04—0.1%0.3%
2026-08-03—0.1%0.5%
2026-08-02—0.1%0.7%
2026-08-01—0.1%0.5%
2026-07-31———
2026-07-30———
2026-07-29———
2026-07-28———
2026-07-27———
2026-07-25———
2026-07-24———
2026-07-23———
2026-07-22———
2026-07-21—0.1%—
2026-07-20—0.1%—
2026-07-1897%——

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, August 18, 2026, Byron Donalds led at 99.0%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor — did the odds go up or down?
Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 97% on July 18, 2026 to 99.0% on August 18, 2026 — a change of 2 points.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor” for 3 days, since July 18, 2026. As of August 18, 2026, Byron Donalds leads the field at 99.0%. The final tracked chance for Byron Donalds has risen from 97% to 99.0%, ranging between 97% and 99.0% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 18, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.