Today’s odds
As of July 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Politics · tracked since July 18, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
3%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Fishback | 3% | 3% | — |
Full history table
| Date | James Fishback |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 3% |
| 2026-07-29 | 3% |
| 2026-07-28 | 3% |
| 2026-07-27 | 3% |
| 2026-07-25 | 2% |
| 2026-07-24 | 2% |
| 2026-07-23 | 2% |
| 2026-07-22 | 3% |
| 2026-07-21 | 3% |
| 2026-07-20 | 4% |
| 2026-07-18 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor — what are the odds?
- As of July 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 10 tracked days the odds held near 4%, ending at 3% on July 30, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor” for 10 days, since July 18, 2026. As of July 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 4% to 3% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.