Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 74%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 7 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since September 1, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
74%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 74% | 74% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 74% |
| 2026-10-11 | 74% |
| 2026-10-10 | 74% |
| 2026-10-09 | 74% |
| 2026-10-08 | 76% |
| 2026-09-22 | 68% |
| 2026-09-21 | 68% |
| 2026-09-20 | 68% |
| 2026-09-19 | 68% |
| 2026-09-18 | 68% |
| 2026-09-08 | 44% |
| 2026-09-07 | 44% |
| 2026-09-06 | 44% |
| 2026-09-05 | 44% |
| 2026-09-04 | 44% |
| 2026-09-03 | 44% |
| 2026-09-02 | 46% |
| 2026-09-01 | 48% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 74%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 18 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 48% on September 1, 2026 to 74% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 26 points.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 18 tracked days the odds ranged between 44% and 76%. The current reading of 74% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting” for 18 days, since September 1, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 74%. The chance for a yes has risen from 48% to 74%, ranging between 44% and 76% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.