Final tracked odds
As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 26%.
▼ 9 since the previous update. ▼ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
Economy · tracked since October 4, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026
26%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 36% | 26% | ▼ 9 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 26% |
| 2026-10-28 | 36% |
| 2026-10-27 | 32% |
| 2026-10-26 | 28% |
| 2026-10-25 | 28% |
| 2026-10-24 | 28% |
| 2026-10-23 | 30% |
| 2026-10-22 | 27% |
| 2026-10-13 | 30% |
| 2026-10-12 | 32% |
| 2026-10-04 | 32% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 26%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 11 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 32% on October 4, 2026 to 26% on November 3, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 11 tracked days the odds ranged between 26% and 36%. The final reading of 26% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting” for 11 days, since October 4, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 26%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 32% to 26%, ranging between 26% and 36% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.