Today’s odds
As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 21%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since July 14, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
21%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 21% | 21% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 21% |
| 2026-07-28 | 21% |
| 2026-07-27 | 27% |
| 2026-07-26 | 16% |
| 2026-07-25 | 21% |
| 2026-07-24 | 26% |
| 2026-07-23 | 25% |
| 2026-07-22 | 22% |
| 2026-07-21 | 12% |
| 2026-07-20 | 7% |
| 2026-07-19 | 5% |
| 2026-07-18 | 5% |
| 2026-07-17 | 4% |
| 2026-07-16 | 4% |
| 2026-07-15 | 4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 9% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting — what are the odds?
- As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 21%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 16 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 9% on July 14, 2026 to 21% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 16 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 27%. The current reading of 21% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting” for 16 days, since July 14, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 21%. The chance for a yes has risen from 9% to 21%, ranging between 4% and 27% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.