Final tracked odds
As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since August 28, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 30, 2026
3%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 16 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 3% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 3% |
| 2026-09-16 | 2% |
| 2026-09-15 | 2% |
| 2026-08-31 | 2% |
| 2026-08-30 | 4% |
| 2026-08-29 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-28 | 1.4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 1.4% on August 28, 2026 to 3% on September 30, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting” for 7 days, since August 28, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 1.4% to 3%, ranging between 1.1% and 4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.