Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 45 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 55% on July 9, 2026 to 14% on September 16, 2026 — a change of 41 points.

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 45 tracked days the odds ranged between 11% and 76%. The final reading of 14% sits inside that range.

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Economy · tracked since July 9, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 16, 2026

14%

Final tracked odds

As of September 16, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 14%.

▲ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 31 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 15	Today	Move
Yes	11%	14%	▲ 3

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-09-16	14%
2026-09-15	11%
2026-09-14	14%
2026-09-13	20%
2026-09-12	20%
2026-09-11	17%
2026-09-10	37%
2026-09-09	45%
2026-09-08	48%
2026-09-07	50%
2026-09-06	50%
2026-09-05	50%
2026-09-04	48%
2026-09-03	58%
2026-09-02	42%
2026-09-01	40%
2026-08-28	48%
2026-08-26	66%
2026-08-24	69%
2026-08-22	68%
2026-08-21	72%
2026-08-20	74%
2026-08-19	72%
2026-08-18	72%
2026-08-17	76%
2026-08-16	76%
2026-08-15	76%
2026-08-14	76%
2026-08-13	72%
2026-08-12	66%
2026-08-11	57%
2026-08-10	64%
2026-08-09	64%
2026-08-08	64%
2026-08-07	65%
2026-08-06	54%
2026-08-05	51%
2026-08-04	49%
2026-08-03	42%
2026-08-02	40%
2026-08-01	38%
2026-07-12	55%
2026-07-11	55%
2026-07-10	55%
2026-07-09	55%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 16, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 45 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 55% on July 9, 2026 to 14% on September 16, 2026 — a change of 41 points.
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 45 tracked days the odds ranged between 11% and 76%. The final reading of 14% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)” for 45 days, since July 9, 2026. As of September 16, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 14%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 55% to 14%, ranging between 11% and 76% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 16, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.