Today’s odds
As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 54%.
▲ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
Economy · tracked since July 9, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
54%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51% | 54% | ▲ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 54% |
| 2026-08-05 | 51% |
| 2026-08-04 | 49% |
| 2026-08-03 | 42% |
| 2026-08-02 | 40% |
| 2026-08-01 | 38% |
| 2026-07-12 | 55% |
| 2026-07-11 | 55% |
| 2026-07-10 | 55% |
| 2026-07-09 | 55% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) — what are the odds?
- As of August 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 54%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 10 tracked days the odds held near 55%, ending at 54% on August 6, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 10 tracked days the odds ranged between 38% and 55%. The current reading of 54% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)” for 10 days, since July 9, 2026. As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 54%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 55% to 54%, ranging between 38% and 55% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.