Final tracked odds
As of September 20, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
Economy · tracked since July 14, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 20, 2026
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 31 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2% |
| 2026-08-31 | 3% |
| 2026-08-30 | 3% |
| 2026-08-29 | 3% |
| 2026-08-28 | 3% |
| 2026-08-27 | 4% |
| 2026-08-26 | 4% |
| 2026-08-25 | 3% |
| 2026-08-24 | 4% |
| 2026-08-23 | 3% |
| 2026-07-19 | 3% |
| 2026-07-18 | 3% |
| 2026-07-17 | 3% |
| 2026-07-14 | 3% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 20, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 14 tracked days the odds held near 3%, ending at 2% on September 20, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027” for 14 days, since July 14, 2026. As of September 20, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 3% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 20, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.