Today’s odds
As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
Economy · tracked since July 14, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 4% |
| 2026-08-26 | 4% |
| 2026-08-25 | 3% |
| 2026-08-24 | 4% |
| 2026-08-23 | 3% |
| 2026-07-19 | 3% |
| 2026-07-18 | 3% |
| 2026-07-17 | 3% |
| 2026-07-14 | 3% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027 — what are the odds?
- As of August 27, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027 — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 9 tracked days the odds held near 3%, ending at 4% on August 27, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027” for 9 days, since July 14, 2026. As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The chance for a yes has held near 3% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.