Today’s odds
As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 7%.
▼ 4 since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
Economy · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
7%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | 7% | ▼ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 7% |
| 2026-07-28 | 11% |
| 2026-07-27 | 14% |
| 2026-07-26 | 3% |
| 2026-07-25 | 3% |
| 2026-07-24 | 3% |
| 2026-07-23 | 3% |
| 2026-07-22 | 3% |
| 2026-07-21 | 3% |
| 2026-07-20 | 3% |
| 2026-07-19 | 4% |
| 2026-07-18 | 4% |
| 2026-07-17 | 4% |
| 2026-07-16 | 4% |
| 2026-07-15 | 4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 4% |
| 2026-07-13 | 4% |
| 2026-07-12 | 6% |
| 2026-07-11 | 4% |
| 2026-07-10 | 4% |
| 2026-07-09 | 4% |
| 2026-07-08 | 6% |
| 2026-07-07 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027 — what are the odds?
- As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 7%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027 — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 23 tracked days the odds held near 6%, ending at 7% on July 29, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 23 tracked days the odds ranged between 3% and 14%. The current reading of 7% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027” for 23 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 7%. The chance for a yes has risen from 6% to 7%, ranging between 3% and 14% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.