Final tracked odds
As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
Economy · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 30, 2026
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.5% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2% |
| 2026-09-29 | 1.5% |
| 2026-09-28 | 1.5% |
| 2026-09-27 | 1.5% |
| 2026-09-26 | 2% |
| 2026-09-25 | 1.3% |
| 2026-09-24 | 1.3% |
| 2026-09-23 | 2% |
| 2026-09-22 | 1.5% |
| 2026-09-21 | 2% |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-19 | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-18 | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-17 | 0.6% |
| 2026-09-16 | 0.6% |
| 2026-09-15 | 11% |
| 2026-09-14 | 3% |
| 2026-09-13 | 2% |
| 2026-09-12 | 3% |
| 2026-09-11 | 2% |
| 2026-09-10 | 2% |
| 2026-09-09 | 2% |
| 2026-09-08 | 2% |
| 2026-09-07 | 2% |
| 2026-09-06 | 2% |
| 2026-09-05 | 2% |
| 2026-09-04 | 3% |
| 2026-09-03 | 3% |
| 2026-09-02 | 3% |
| 2026-09-01 | 3% |
| 2026-08-28 | 2% |
| 2026-08-27 | 2% |
| 2026-08-26 | 3% |
| 2026-08-25 | 3% |
| 2026-08-24 | 3% |
| 2026-08-23 | 3% |
| 2026-08-22 | 3% |
| 2026-08-21 | 3% |
| 2026-08-20 | 3% |
| 2026-08-19 | 3% |
| 2026-08-18 | 3% |
| 2026-08-17 | 4% |
| 2026-08-16 | 3% |
| 2026-08-15 | 3% |
| 2026-08-14 | 3% |
| 2026-08-13 | 3% |
| 2026-08-12 | 3% |
| 2026-08-11 | 3% |
| 2026-07-31 | 6% |
| 2026-07-30 | 6% |
| 2026-07-29 | 7% |
| 2026-07-28 | 11% |
| 2026-07-27 | 14% |
| 2026-07-26 | 3% |
| 2026-07-25 | 3% |
| 2026-07-24 | 3% |
| 2026-07-23 | 3% |
| 2026-07-22 | 3% |
| 2026-07-21 | 3% |
| 2026-07-20 | 3% |
| 2026-07-19 | 4% |
| 2026-07-18 | 4% |
| 2026-07-17 | 4% |
| 2026-07-16 | 4% |
| 2026-07-15 | 4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 4% |
| 2026-07-13 | 4% |
| 2026-07-12 | 6% |
| 2026-07-11 | 4% |
| 2026-07-10 | 4% |
| 2026-07-09 | 4% |
| 2026-07-08 | 6% |
| 2026-07-07 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 73 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on July 7, 2026 to 2% on September 30, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 73 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.6% and 14%. The final reading of 2% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027” for 73 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 6% to 2%, ranging between 0.6% and 14% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.