Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 36%.
▼ 8 since the previous update. ▼ 8 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in December 2026?
Economy · tracked since September 18, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
36%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.8% | 44% | 36% | ▼ 8 |
Full history table
| Date | Above 3.8% |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 36% |
| 2026-09-28 | 44% |
| 2026-09-22 | 46% |
| 2026-09-21 | 46% |
| 2026-09-20 | 48% |
| 2026-09-19 | 46% |
| 2026-09-18 | 46% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in December 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 36%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in December 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 46% on September 18, 2026 to 36% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 10 points.
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in December 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 7 tracked days the odds ranged between 36% and 48%. The final reading of 36% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in December 2026” for 7 days, since September 18, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 36%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 46% to 36%, ranging between 36% and 48% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.