Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 32%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in December 2026?
Economy · tracked since September 21, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
32%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.9% | 35% | 32% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Above 3.9% |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 32% |
| 2026-09-28 | 35% |
| 2026-09-22 | 45% |
| 2026-09-21 | 46% |
| 2026-09-20 * | 40% |
| 2026-09-19 * | 40% |
| 2026-09-18 * | 43% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in December 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 32%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in December 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 46% on September 21, 2026 to 32% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 14 points.
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in December 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 32% and 46%. The final reading of 32% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in December 2026” for 4 days, since September 21, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 32%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 46% to 32%, ranging between 32% and 46% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.