Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 78%.
▲ 9 since the previous update. ▲ 21 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
Economy · tracked since October 1, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
78%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 78% | ▲ 9 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 78% |
| 2026-11-02 | 70% |
| 2026-11-01 | 72% |
| 2026-10-15 | 57% |
| 2026-10-14 | 56% |
| 2026-10-04 | 64% |
| 2026-10-03 | 64% |
| 2026-10-02 | 64% |
| 2026-10-01 | 54% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 78%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 54% on October 1, 2026 to 78% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 24 points.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 54% and 78%. The current reading of 78% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting” for 9 days, since October 1, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 78%. The chance for a yes has risen from 54% to 78%, ranging between 54% and 78% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.