Final tracked odds
As of September 16, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 14%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 31 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since July 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 16, 2026
14%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 15 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 14% | ▲ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 14% |
| 2026-09-15 | 12% |
| 2026-09-14 | 14% |
| 2026-09-13 | 20% |
| 2026-09-12 | 20% |
| 2026-09-11 | 18% |
| 2026-09-10 | 36% |
| 2026-09-09 | 44% |
| 2026-09-08 | 46% |
| 2026-09-07 | 48% |
| 2026-09-06 | 50% |
| 2026-09-05 | 50% |
| 2026-09-04 | 48% |
| 2026-09-03 | 58% |
| 2026-09-02 | 42% |
| 2026-09-01 | 40% |
| 2026-08-31 | 42% |
| 2026-08-30 | 52% |
| 2026-08-29 | 55% |
| 2026-08-28 | 48% |
| 2026-07-29 | 38% |
| 2026-07-28 | 38% |
| 2026-07-27 | 42% |
| 2026-07-26 | 42% |
| 2026-07-25 | 40% |
| 2026-07-24 | 40% |
| 2026-07-23 | 42% |
| 2026-07-22 | 46% |
| 2026-07-21 | 48% |
| 2026-07-20 | 54% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 16, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 30 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 54% on July 20, 2026 to 14% on September 16, 2026 — a change of 40 points.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 30 tracked days the odds ranged between 12% and 58%. The final reading of 14% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting” for 30 days, since July 20, 2026. As of September 16, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 14%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 54% to 14%, ranging between 12% and 58% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 16, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.