Today’s odds
As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 40%.
▲ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since July 20, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
40%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 38% | 40% | ▲ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 40% |
| 2026-07-28 | 38% |
| 2026-07-27 | 42% |
| 2026-07-26 | 42% |
| 2026-07-25 | 40% |
| 2026-07-24 | 40% |
| 2026-07-23 | 42% |
| 2026-07-22 | 46% |
| 2026-07-21 | 48% |
| 2026-07-20 | 54% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting — what are the odds?
- As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 40%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 10 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 54% on July 20, 2026 to 40% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 14 points.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 10 tracked days the odds ranged between 38% and 54%. The current reading of 40% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting” for 10 days, since July 20, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 40%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 54% to 40%, ranging between 38% and 54% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.