Final tracked odds
As of September 22, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 86%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Economy · tracked since September 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 22, 2026
86%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 20 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 86% | 86% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 86% |
| 2026-09-20 | 86% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 22, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 86%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Another Fed rate hike in 2026” for 2 days, since September 20, 2026. As of September 22, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 86%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 86% to 86% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 22, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.