Final tracked odds
As of September 13, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 62%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 10 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since July 27, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 13, 2026
62%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 12 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 62% | 62% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 62% |
| 2026-09-12 | 62% |
| 2026-09-11 | 64% |
| 2026-08-24 | 72% |
| 2026-08-23 | 72% |
| 2026-08-22 | 72% |
| 2026-08-21 | 72% |
| 2026-08-20 | 72% |
| 2026-08-19 | 72% |
| 2026-08-18 | 72% |
| 2026-08-17 | 72% |
| 2026-08-16 | 72% |
| 2026-08-15 | 72% |
| 2026-08-14 | 72% |
| 2026-08-13 | 70% |
| 2026-07-28 | 60% |
| 2026-07-27 | 60% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 13, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 62%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 17 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 60% on July 27, 2026 to 62% on September 13, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 17 tracked days the odds ranged between 60% and 72%. The final reading of 62% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting” for 17 days, since July 27, 2026. As of September 13, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 62%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 60% to 62%, ranging between 60% and 72% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 13, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.