Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 40%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 22% on September 17, 2026 to 40% on September 28, 2026 — a change of 18 points.

Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 22% and 40%. The final reading of 40% sits at the top of that range.

Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Economy · tracked since September 17, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 28, 2026

40%

Final tracked odds

As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 40%.

▲ 13 since the previous update. ▲ 14 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 22	Today	Move
Exactly 3	27%	40%	▲ 13

Full history table

Date	Exactly 3
2026-09-28	40%
2026-09-22	27%
2026-09-21	26%
2026-09-20	28%
2026-09-17	22%
2026-09-16 *	2%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 40%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 22% on September 17, 2026 to 40% on September 28, 2026 — a change of 18 points.
Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 22% and 40%. The final reading of 40% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026” for 5 days, since September 17, 2026. As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 40%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 22% to 40%, ranging between 22% and 40% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.