Final tracked odds
As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 91%.
▲ 4 since the previous update. ▲ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?
Economy · tracked since September 17, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 28, 2026
91%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 22 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 88% | 91% | ▲ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Before 2027 |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 91% |
| 2026-09-22 | 88% |
| 2026-09-21 | 86% |
| 2026-09-20 | 86% |
| 2026-09-19 | 86% |
| 2026-09-18 | 84% |
| 2026-09-17 | 80% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 91%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 80% on September 17, 2026 to 91% on September 28, 2026 — a change of 11 points.
- Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 7 tracked days the odds ranged between 80% and 91%. The final reading of 91% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026” for 7 days, since September 17, 2026. As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 91%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 80% to 91%, ranging between 80% and 91% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.