Final tracked odds
As of September 15, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.8%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since August 21, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 15, 2026
0.8%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.8% | 0.8% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-03 | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-02 | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-01 | 0.8% |
| 2026-08-23 | 0.8% |
| 2026-08-22 | 0.7% |
| 2026-08-21 | 0.7% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 15, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 7 tracked days the odds held near 0.7%, ending at 0.8% on September 15, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting” for 7 days, since August 21, 2026. As of September 15, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.8%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 0.7% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 15, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.